Typically, the way you get less of a certain behavior is to disincentive it. This can mean social pressures, deterrence in the case of prison, or economic penalties. As I explained in a 2024 post, I posit careerism is the leading cause of delayed family formation in the US and likely other developed countries.
The US govt. creates huge incentives to promote careerism, like cheap borrowing for home owners, low-interest rates for student loans (at competitive, cheap federal rates compared to inflated private-sector rates), student loan forbearance, cheap mortgages, payment plans and other assistance. And the same for private sector incentives, such as inflated white collar salaries that have ballooned since 2008 and especially since Covid for the ‘PMC’.
It’s not that complicated or a mystery. In the pre-90s or so, the then-equivalent of white collar jobs were not that lucrative, relatively speaking, compared to post-2010. Being a doctor, a lawyer, or working ‘in tech’ in the ’90s only made low 6-figures at best, not half a million (salary + comp.) commonly seen today for today’s trillion-dollar tech firms and tech elite. Adjusted for inflation and student loan debt, that is still a significant premium.
‘VHCOL’ areas despite homes being more expensive, have the most home appreciation, which creates an additional wealth tailwind effect. Anyone who bought a home in the early 2010s has enough home equity to retire off of that alone. Even those who bought a home as recently as during Covid are way ahead. But being able to afford a home requires affording the hefty down-payment and having a good enough credit score for a mortgage–hence the need for stable, remunerative employment, which means credentialism and years climbing corporate ladder. All of this means delayed family formation.
It’s no surprise that many of the wealthiest people on Reddit’s popular ‘FIRE’ communities (e.g. r/FatFire) live in VHCOL areas–that is where all the money is, incidentally. It helps to follow the money if one seeks to make more of it. What they also all have in common is delaying family formation, or having few or no children. And who can blame them? I see it online constantly–those who seem to make the most money and have satisfying and productive careers delay family formation.
It’s not just the professional-middle-class or tech jobs–I see it in regard to social media influencers, podcasters, YouTube, etc. How many kids does Mr. Beast have? Exactly. In the ’60s people of all walks of life had kids early. Things were not as competitive or ‘make or break’ compared to today. The only possible exception is professional sports, in which career aspirations does not seem to hinder family formation.
However, there may be a hidden benefit to delayed family formation or careerism on a broader level. If we imagine a society in which careerism and credentialism are heavily incentivized, those who resist may be better parents, so a lower fertility rate may be offset by better parenting and higher-quality children, although it’s still dysgenic having ‘America’s best and brightest’ choosing careers over children.
Overall, I am not optimistic this will change. Cutting off the student loan spigot is one solution. But that, of course, is a non-starter given that education has been ingrained, on either side of the aisle, as being central to upward mobility. Government spending (e.g. more welfare) is not the solution either. There already exist very generous programs and tax breaks for families with children, compared to single people or childless couples.
The problem is not that the elite don’t have enough money (it’s not like Mr. Beast doesn’t have enough money even though he’s constantly giving it away)–it’s the status they are attracted to, which by definition is zero-sum, so no amount of government spending will ever suffice at rectifying this.