On November 18th, Tesla stock surged on news that Trump would ease regulations around self-driving cars. And for November 2024, it’s on track for one of its strongest months ever surging yet again. It cannot be stopped.
Elon is smarter than he even lets on online. He’s always a few steps ahead. Even in regard to his buyout of Twitter, widely regarded by the media as a failure, by getting Trump in office and with the favors he’s likely to get, his wealth increased enough in appreciation of Tesla stock and Space-X valuation to offset the purchase, and then much more.
Just before the assassination attempt, Twitter/X’s private valuation had fallen to its lowest point ever. This gave Mr. Musk a $20 billion paper loss on his purchase, based on private sales and other valuation estimates.
After Trump narrowly avoided death, Elon had one of three options:
1. Not endorse anyone. He could have taken a principled stand of not allowing his fame and platform influence the election.
2. Throw all his weight and that of Twitter/X behind Trump, repurposing his platform into an extension of Trump’s campaign.
3. Endorse Biden (who was replaced by Kamala).
Had he chosen #1, people would have respected that. Trump likely still would have won, but Elon would have gotten no promises or kickbacks, so his wealth would not have increased nearly as much. Tesla stock would have maybe gone up 5% instead of 50%. And Elon would still be $20 billion in the hole on his Twitter/X purchase.
Had he chosen #3, he likely would not have gotten any favors from Kamala had she won, nor any favors from Trump. His endorsement would have cost him some supporters with his un-woke fanbase, but not regain any on the left either. Of all the choices, this would have been the worst one.
#2 was the optimal choice, and as we know, the one he had chosen. Trump embraced Elon, seeing that they shared similar values, a large fanbase overlap, and a common objective. By having the ear of the the most powerful man in the world, through the appreciation of Tesla/Space-X valuation, Mr. Musk regained the $20 billion he lost on Twitter, plus probably another $20-40 billion, so he came out way ahead.
Elon saw Trump as a way of regaining his loss, and had bet on the correct horse. But had Trump lost, the downside likely would not have been that great either, being that Twitter’s valuation had already hit a bottom. So this choice was one of huge potential upside and small downside.