A few inches and Trump not momentarily turning his head to look away from the teleprompter, and history would have been forever changed. Audience members closest to the stage, perhaps distracted by their smartphones as the rally was starting, would have felt a mist and a sprinkle of fragments and looked up to the sound of gunshots and the sight of the president crumpling as agents rushed in to cover his then lifeless body. But there would have been nothing to save.
Viewers at home would see the glare of the late afternoon sun against Trump’s face as he spoke, and then a faint red mist and the camera cutting to Trump collapsing. Confusion would lead to gasps of horror as police swarm the stage to hold people back, perhaps leading to more deaths in the ensuing chaos. If this seems dramatic, it’s not, because this is literally what would have happened had luck not intervened. It would be like Hollywood, but real life.
By turning his head at a moment’s notice, the bullet grazed his ear instead of implanting itself into the back of his skull, and after falling in shock, he was whisked off the stage, but not before triumphantly giving a fist-pump, blood still trickling down his face. His would-be assassin–identified as Pennsylvania native Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old loner–instead met the fate that Trump had narrowly avoided, but for an audience member who was slain in the volley of bullets.
It is agreed upon that this was a major lapse of security. There are two views, seemingly at odds with each other: that this was allowed to happen, or attributable to gross negligence due to DEI or other factors. There were so many coincidences, like the fortuitous alignment of factors that explain how the shooter was able get so close and subsequently fire off multiple shots from such a clean vantage point. Yet the shooter was inexperienced, which lends against a conspiracy. Pop culture has give people an inflated perception of the competence of government agencies. These are people who are collecting a paycheck like everyone else. It just so happens a president’s life is in their hands.
A common refrain is we were inches from Civil War. I don’t think it would have led to another civil war, but some unchartered ground in which a historical parallel fails to suffice. It would have been the worst national security crisis since 911. It would not have as serious economic consequences as 911, but it would be bad in ways that are hard to conceive of. That night there would have been standoffs in major cities between Trump supporters and those who cheered-on his death, leading widespread lockdowns and even possible martial law.
Of course, political assassinations are quotidian in American history. Some are well-remembered like attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan in 1981, or the assassination of RFK in 1968, and others forgotten like the 1975 attempt on Gerald Ford’s life. But there are key differences. A headshot kill on national TV during a rally would have been the worst possible outcome. The footage would live for eternity and his killer held up as a martyr.
Due to the multiplicative effects of social media and Trump being held up as a messianic figure of sorts who transcends politics, it likely would have been worse than the JFK assassination, but more like the death of a religious leader and taken on a biblical significance. As we saw during Jan 6th, people are willing to put their lives on the line for Trump, signifying a level of devotion unrivaled of past politicians.
A new candidate would be chosen, and America would eventually move on. It always does. America has survived worse. So let’s wrap it up to say Trump is very lucky to be alive. We should be grateful Trump is alive, not as an endorsement of Trump, but because had Crooks succeeded it could have thrown America into an era or phase of darkness of the likes not seen possibly since the Civil War. Luck has always been a key element of Trump’s political career and he would not have gotten so far without it, and for the sake of the collective sanity of the nation we are fortunate his luck didn’t run out that afternoon.