There are three certainties in life: Death, taxes, and Bitcoin falling. Bitcoin continues to crash as predicted, breaching $57k on its eventful trajectory to $20k or lower.
The divergence between Bitcoin and leveraged tech ETFs keeps widening, as predicted also:
Earlier this year it looked like I was wrong, but then Bitcoin inexplicably collapsed as tech stocks kept going up, which caught many people by surprise, as it was generally assumed that Bitcoin and stocks are strongly positively correlated.
The usual rebuttals are along the lines that, “Bitcoin is the best-performing asset over the past decade.” Yes, but this is 2024. All it shows is that starting with a small number can inflate returns; it tells you nothing about future returns. Remove 2017 and start at 2018 and the returns are much worse–worse than even some index funds.
Or Bitcoin ETF inflows. But those inflows are negated by outflows elsewhere, like hedging with Bitcoin futures. This means shorting Bitcoin futures and buying the Bitcoin ETF to profit from contango. It was already trivially easy to buy Bitcoin before the ETFs were approved. Why would entities managing billions of dollars need an ETF and be unable to buy Bitcoin in any other way?
When I claim to have an IQ of at least 170 this is backed by quantifiable evidence. I am not going to claim something unless I have reason to believe it’s true. To predict entire macro trends, including trends that seem at odds with each other, necessitates some outlier intelligence. For example, many people predicted that Bitcoin and stocks would rise together, or that both would fall, or that Bitcoin would outperform stocks; I was the only person out of thousands, AFIK, to predict the correct quadrant/outcome: tech stocks surging and Bitcoin falling.