The Daily View 4/21/2024: Iran vs. Israel, DJT Stock Comeback

This week feels like Déjà vu of last week.

Item #1: From the NYTs: Muted Reactions to Israeli Strikes on Iran Hint at De-Escalation, “Israel had vowed retaliation for Iran’s attack last weekend, but the strikes reported overnight were limited, and Iran downplayed them.”

This agrees with what I wrote last week here and here, in which I predicted either nothing would happen or Israel’s relation would be limited,

In keeping with my heuristic, when Israel fails to respond, calls it off, or the response is weaker than expected–expect a rally in stocks to new highs. Israel’s response will be underwhelming, assuming anything happens.

Nothing close to WW3, no involvement of other countries. However, the stock market has not recovered and continues to fall, with the QQQ posting its worse week in over a year. I am not worried, and the market will recover later, but this is a disappointing setback for sure. The concern has shifted from war to inflation and the fed failing to lower interest rates, as widely expected earlier this year.

Item #2: Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT) stock stages huge recovery. It has surged 50% off the lows from $25 to $35:

DJT has ‘meme value’, which is why I would never bet against it. As I wrote earlier, too many people are expecting a repeat of Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts, which was delisted and went bankrupt in 2004. Trump has more name recognition, a bigger brand, and more financing and partnership options today compared to in the ’90s and early 2000s. For these reasons, DJT has much more staying power than his earlier companies.

Trump is unstoppable and untouchable–whether it’s his 2024 campaign, his legal battles, or DJT stock. The hush money trial is a nothingburger and will not lead to the outcome the left is hoping for (e.g. Trump loses in 2024, is disqualified, or is imprisoned etc.). Even Trump’s harshest critics must confide the trial is just procedural theater of no consequence.

On a related note, what ever happened to that huge $300 million fine Trump owed? Funny how that vanished from the headlines after non-stop coverage a month ago. This shows how nothing sticks with Trump and how he keeps rising above everything. And to think the media was actually entertaining the possibly Trump would be forced to liquidate his real estate to pay the fine…so much for that, which goers to show how useless the media is. Just when it seems like Trump is cornered or checkmated, he escapes. The wheels of justice turn slowly, especially with Trump, who is a master of delaying tactics.