I think my Feb 2023 article America’s Threats are Always on the Horizon, Hypothetical aged well. In early to mid 2023 everyone assumed that the next crisis would involve at least one of the following:
-Nuclear war or a world war involving Ukraine, Russia, and or neighboring countries
-AI-apocalypse due to unstoppable GPU clusters
-Trade war with China or blockade of Taiwan
-Civil disobedience and unrest due to Jan 6th aftermath or Trump indictments. Or protests over student loan forgiveness, affirmative action, or Roe v. Wade being overturned.
-Vague breakdown of law and order
Some of these seem in retrospect rather silly, like about AI or UFOs. Nine months after the Chinese balloon and still no trade war or blockades. Same for Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, in August 2022. China has so many problems domestically that it is in no position to do much of anything.
Instead, the crisis is the same as always between Muslims and Jews who cannot get along, in a tiny piece of land that has been contested for as long has recorded history. Everyone was looking in the wrong place for the next crisis, instead of where it has always been. Even I didn’t see it coming. Not a single pundit got this right. If the neocons get one thing right, it’s that the Middle East, not China, is the biggest source of geopolitical risk.