The daily view 10/10/2023: Bitcoin Falls, and Crisis in the Middle East

Bitcoin keeps falling like I said it would, having dropped below $27k, on its way to $20k and lower:

This proves yet again that Bitcoin is useless as a hedge against crisis, this time crisis in the Middle East. In September the SEC put all Bitcoin ETF approvals on hold until 2024, again like I predicted. I predicted correctly in July that there would be no approval. The reason Bitcoin surged from $25k to $30k in July was in anticipation of an ETF being approved in 2023, which will not happen, and 2024 is looking very unlikely too.

Regarding the Middle East, the impact of this crisis on the US economy is minimal to non-existent. Tech stocks will keep going up, in particular Google and Meta, which are my favorites. The US is privileged in being isolated geographically and economically from the crisis elsewhere in the world. America’s problems, like an Apple store being looted or a Target closing due to shoplifters, are quaint compared to a city being hit by missiles.

The default assumption is to buy oil and to buy defense sectors–yeah that worked real well after Russia invaded Ukraine, which seemed like a no-brainer investment decision, only for oil to give up its gains months later. Oil is back to the same price it was before the invasion:

It’s interesting how in the span of a week the news cycle changed from a congressman pulling an alarm, to the speaker of the House being ousted, to the worst crisis in the Middle East in perhaps half a century. Now all of a sudden everyone on Twitter is an expert on Middle East policy.

I remember headlines in the very early morning of the 7th about an attack on Israel, but this sort of thing was not unheard of, so I didn’t give it further attention. As the hours went on and the death toll climbed, plus virial footage, the gravity of the situation became apparent that this was way worse than the usual conflict.

There are no good takes or opinions, nor any solutions that are viable. There is not going to be a 2-state solution or relocation of either Jews or Palestinians. Nothing has changed or will change. The GOP is back to endorsing war like in the early 2000s again, but some on the left and the alt/dissident-right are split between supporting Israel or Palestine.

Had Hamas not intentionally killed so many civilians, the choice would be more obvious, but the fact the they are not innocent in this makes it harder to play the sympathy card, and the optics are way worse. [However, always be skeptical of claims of either victims being paraded or civilians shot in cold blood–narratives tend to be unreliable and stories fabricated, by either side. There is tons of fake news abound.] The narrative of the Palestinians being victims deserving of our sympathy thus does not work as well. Sure, they are being cut off from food and supplies yet somehow were able to get all those arms to launch such a major surprise offense?