Bitcoin continues to lag QQQ/big tech, right again

In 2022/2023 I predicted ‘big tech’ (e.g. TECL, TQQQ, QQQ, etc.) is going to massively outperform Bitcoin as the stock market recovers: “…the prediction has a second part, which is that Bitcoin will lag 3x funds, TECL and TQQQ . So I can be wrong about the first and right about the second.”

And also that the future is big tech, not crypto. “Right now we’re at a crossroads, with Bitcoin up 170% vs 87% for the QQQ over the past 5 years, so Bitcoin is still outperforming tech, but I predict this will be flipped.”

Sure enough, over the past 2 months Bitcoin has lagged 3x funds considerably:

You can see above how TECL (in blue ) has surpassed Bitcoin (in black). TQQQ, in gold, is tied. But the trend is clearly negative for bitcoin. Sub $20k soon is still in the cards, and I remain ‘short’ by using my method to profit from this trend.

Turkey’s elections are a shitshow as always, the ‘TUR’ fund keeps falling as I predicted also:

This is in agreement with HBD. Low IQ country = worse returns.

Meta keeps going up, at $240, also as I said. It’s going back to $340 soon:

All else being equal, someone with higher IQ and superior pattern recognition skills can be expected to be right and a better forecaster over someone lacking in those attributes. It’s more than just knowing things, but like precognition. You just sit back and know what is going happen, and it happens.

Its funny how some random blogger is right, but these experts with huge follower counts are always wrong. I see this over and over. No-name people are right, not the big brands or experts. Money, fame, and clout tends to cloud judgment and make people inclined to cling to wrong/bad ideas. Or wrong/bad beliefs are more popular.

No one wants to be told that the future is one dominated bigger tech companies. People want to believe there will be some new paradigm–such as crypto, AI, or a ‘network state’–to disrupt the social order or status quo. Remember all that hype about 3D printing a decade ago? What ever came of that? Or drones 5-7 years ago? I remember all the hype over nanotechnology 20 years ago. People were making the same arguments for or against nanotechnology as we see with AI today, including doomer arguments that nanotechnology would destroy the world. Or the Segway, which was going to revolutionize personal human transportation and make cars obsolete. And of course VR, which for 30 years now has been always on the cusp of ‘breaking out’, but is still a niche.

Personal computers, software, the world wide web, and smart phones were such huge successes because they are profitable and convenient. Computers are like an extension of TV. Smart phones are like an extension of laptops and regular phones. There is no leap of faith in the user experience, like having to wear a nausea-inducing VR helmet. The medium of displaying information is perfect for advertising, like Google ads, mobile ads, or Facebook ads. And software scales really well, which is why Microsoft has been such a good investment.

I have lost track of how often a new technology or service has been touted as revolutionary, only for it to eventually fall way short of expectations or the public to lose interest. Is AI ‘it’? Will it fundamentally change our lives at a personal level similar to the world wide web or smart phones? Maybe. But looking to history, the odds are not that good.

So overall, 2023 could not be going better as a far as forecasts and investing are concerned.