The Daily View: Bitcoin crash cont., McDonald’s stock surge, Elon lawsuit, the SATs

1st item: Bitcoin continues to crash like I said it would yesterday, getting ready to break $28k on its way back below $20k soon despite the Nasdaq holding strong at 13,000.

This week my BTC method has been among the most profitable ever. I will show the spreadsheet soon of the backtested results to demonstrate I was right all along. Usually quants/traders do the backtest first and then deploy capital, but I am doing it in reverse. I first wrote of the method in December 2022, having run it myself since early Nov 2022, so everyone was given warning. Yet it continues to crush it…maybe this refutes the EMH? Who knows. This is why I’m still one of the smartest people (at least IQ 150 based on SATs, math papers, SMPY-qualifying SAT math scores, and other evidence, to be discussed later) and best forecasters and traders ever.

2nd item: McDonald’s stock (ticker: MCD) continues to surge as predicted, having gained nearly 10% in 1.5 months and far outperforming the overall market:

From a Nov 1st. 2022 post:

McDonald’s benefits from any economic environment: In high inflation, restaurants can jack up prices, all while Americans will continue to shell out $20 or more per trip, more money than healthier alternatives, to satiate their addiction to the greasy stuff. During recessions, McDonald’s is also popular because people perceive it as a bargain, even though it’s not.

I mostly focus on tech, but my non-tech recommendations, like McDonald’s, have done really well too. I don’t think the new class of GLP-1 agonists will hurt McDonald’s business. These drugs are still hard to obtain, very expensive, and most insurance companies will not cover them, because they are for cosmetic reasons, not out of necessity. Obese patients will likely need to have comorbidities to qualify for coverage. Even if such drugs see widespread use, McDonald’s business should not be impacted too much.

3rd item: Elon Musk threatens to sue Microsoft for the unauthorized web scraping of Twitter data for GPT training. This is what I predicted would happen in my article from a few weeks ago, and is one reason why I am bearish on Open AI:

Another problem with Chat GPT is gathering the necessary data, which involves crawling and organizing huge troves of content … This will compel publishers to block access to entities associated with Chat GPT or demand some other form of credit, remittance, or attribution. Some may be surprised to learn even simple things like song lyrics can be copyrighted.

Chat GPT needs huge troves of data to give accurate answers, some of which either is not for public domain or requires various licensing and API fees to access. Due to Chat’s huge data usage and the financial backing of Microsoft, makes it a major legal target. Had Microsoft not acquired such a large stake of Open AI, likely it would not be as worthwhile to sue it.

4th item: A good article I owe my career to the SAT

Agree 100%. The SATs, particularly, older versions, have a much higher potential ceiling compared to GPAs and hence are much more discriminating of top talent compared to GPAs, which have been rendered even more useless due to grade inflation. GPAs have always been inflated, even decades ago. 3.5-4.0 high school GPAs are a dime a dozen, but top SAT scores not so much. To counter grade inflation and to distinguish oneself, the subject-level SATs have gained popularity, as well as the trend of smart high schoolers taking calculus and other advanced, university-level courses.

However, alluding to my earlier article, the left is shooting itself in the foot here. Top colleges ending the SATs, and a lower-IQ student body overall to show for it, will likely erode the prestige of such institutions and their influence on society in the long term, which for ‘the right’ is possibly a welcome development even if the decline of the meritocracy is upsetting.