If Trump Wins: The Next 4 Years

A month ago I predicted that if Biden wins, things will be bad, but possibly not as bad as feared. Despite Biden choosing Kamala Harris, who is possibly the most anti-white VP ever, I still stand by this.

From a policy perspective, the next 4 years will resemble the last 4, in which little to nothing is accomplished legislatively. But if merely having a Republican in the Oval Office is good enough, then what Trump does or doesn’t accomplish is of little consequence. Some say Trump has resisted the left, I do not see much evidence of that. If things were how they were in 2010-2016, maybe such an argument could be empirically valid, but it would seem the left has strengthened its control, whether it is cancel culture, tech censorship, BLM protests, immigration, LGBT rights, and other culture war issues. But that is not to say that the left has not met resistance. A year ago, after Jeffrey Epstein was found dead in his cell under circumstances so suspicious that any reasonably-minded person could clearly see it was a murder cover-up motivated by political reasons, the liberal media found itself scrambling to defend its initial story, that he had committed suicide. Thousands of people, most of them Trump supporters, from March to June during the peak of the Covid outbreak, demonstrated against the quarantines and lockdowns. YouTube videos that try to push a social-justice agenda tend to get considerably more down-cotes than up-votes, signifying significant disparagement against the left, in spite of the left’s billions of dollars of funding. Recent police bodycam footage showed George Floyd was not just another innocent victim of police brutality by whites, but was combative, under the influence of drugs, and repeatedly resisted even the simplest of orders (such as to sit in a police cruiser), revealing yet again another left-wing narrative as a farce.

But in terms of what a second Trump term will be like, here are my predictions:

1. With the exception of another massive Covid stimulus package, there will be continued gridlock regardless of which party controls the House and Senate. A GOP-majority will not help that much considering most House Republicans have little willingness to work with Trump, and Trump himself seems to have little interest in legislation anyway, preferring executive orders instead.

2. Immigration and China are dead. I predict, until at least early 2023, immigration and China (in regard to trade) will be eclipsed by BLM unrest and Covid. Dealing with the economic aftermath (and rising case count) of Covid and also civil unrest due to BLM and other groups, will dominate Trump’s second term. If Trump is reelected, the protests will likely intensify. There will be little time for dealing with immigration, China, or tech censorship, not that trump has ever shown much of a willingness/initiative regarding those issues anyway (given the absence of any progress made in 2017-2020, before Covid).

3. Money printer go BRRR….fire up those printing presses. There will be another massive Covid stimulus/bailout package. Millions low-income, low-skilled people who lost their jobs will likely require govt. assistance for years to come, similar how to the financial crisis of 2008 created a large, permanently unemployed underclass that persisted for years despite the economy otherwise recovering. In spite of all this deficit spending, the US dollar does not fall, treasury bond yields remain low; low inflation.

4. New highs for stock market thanks in part due to permanent stimulus and low interest rates. Expecting annual returns in excess of 20% for the S&P 500 from 2021 to 2025, but somewhat lower returns if Biden wins. Covid cases will keep rising but will not hurt economy that much in spite of a lot of people being unemployed. Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Netflix, Shopify, Tesla, etc. keep going up. Same as last 4 years in spite of threats of antitrust by Trump. Expect tons of tweets about the stock market making new highs. No-branier prediction.

5. Covid vaccine is developed. This will create a huge bureaucratic mess in terms of administering and enforcing it, such as people who cannot afford a vaccine or those who do not consent to it. This will further tie-up Trump’s hands for his second term. The vaccine will be heralded by Trump as a major accomplishment of his presidency.

6. Elon Musk, Bill Gates ,and Jeff Bezos—three people to rule the world. Their wealth will ellipse $200-500+ billion each (and $1 trillion combined), making then wealthier anyone in the post-Industrial Revolution era, even when adjusted for inflation (surpassing that of John D. Rockefeller, who at his peak was worth $419 billion in 2019 dollars). Tesla stock will be worth $1.3 trillion, probably $10,000/share.

7. The left will go even more insane. Expect more banning/suspensions of social media accounts and payment processing of conservatives. Expect even greater LGBT normalization, more pronoun debates, more cancellations, etc. Pretty much a repeat of the last 4 years.

8. BLM continues to terrorize America. Maybe if things get really bad, as if they are not already bad enough,Trump may invboke the Insurrection Act of 1807, although it is a long shot.

9. A new SCOTUS justice. Given that 80-year-olds with terminal cancer tend to not live that long, this is a shoo-in, but the confirmation process will be a slog.