update: Trump and Stock Market


Last week the S&P 500 decisively broke above its 3030 resistance, as I correctly predicted multiple times this year that it would:

Just another example of this blog being right, whether it’s about tariffs, the economy, Trump, trade wars, etc. Still predicting 13% annual returns for the market for the next 8 years.

Will this help Trump in 2020? It certainly won’t hurt. But according to 538, Trump’s approval rating is at just 41%, which seem too low given how strong the economy and stock market is, as well as foreign policy successes. This makes me believe the left is pushing for impeachment, not because they have a chance of removing Trump from office, which they know they don’t, but in the hope the ensuing bad press will dissuade undecided and moderate voters in key states from voting for Trump , similar to how Clinton’s impeachment cost Gore Florida and the 2000 election. Before the impeachment investigation was announced, Trump’s approval rating was at 43%, the highest possibly ever according to 538. A two point decline is not much but can make the difference in battleground states. To get that 2 point decline requires possibly a billion dollars of negative ads. So effectively the dems got a billion dollars of recurring ad space to smear Trump, at a cost of nothing. Even if the House doesn’t hold a vote before the election, the bad press may be just enough to tip the scales against Trump, and combined with very subtle social media nudges by Facebook and Google and other social media companies targeted at swing voters in these key states.