Trump’s 2020 odds improve, but victory far from certain

Things have been slow on the news front lately. As I predicted 3 months ago, don’t expect much from the Trump administration until after the election, so we’re looking at 20 months minimum.

Regarding Epstein, So a sleazy financier who everyone expected of being a pedophile is actually a pedophile…who knew. I predict there will be minimal to no fallout and the story will be forgotten in a week or two, although it was poor judgement of Trump to appoint Acostas.

Tim put out a video

I don’t agree completely with this. Regarding Trump’s odds of being reelected being a tossup in spite of multi-year high approval ratings, that is literally what dozens of polls suggest. It’s not a media conspiracy to downplay Trump’s odds or appeal. Could the polls be wrong? Of course, as was the case in 2016, as Tim notes. But polls tend to be more accurate than not. Jimmy Carter’s approval rating tanked in his final year to as low as 33%, and he lost. Reagan in 1984 had an approval rating of 65%, and he won by a landslide. Bill Clinton in 1996 had an approval rating of 62%. However, Obama won a large electoral victory in 2012 despite only having a 52% approval rating.

Similar to Obama and George W. Bush, Trump has never been that popular of a candidate, and is equally polarizing. There are plenty of people, regardless of how strong the economy is, who will never vote for Trump. Either you love him or hate him. Although America has always been divided over some core set of fundamental values, the political climate is seems more divided than ever, whether it’s over immigration, abortion, wedding cakes, or guns. There is the perception by half the country that the other half is conspiring against it. Long gone are the days when sitting presidents could enjoy consistent 60+ percent approval ratings

However, approval ratings should not be interpreted as direct probabilities of Trump being reelected. A 43% approval rating may mean a 50% likelihood of reelection, because of the tendency of polls to underestimate Trump’s support, especially for those invaluable swing states. But a 50% probability is a coin toss, yet a large improvement over a 43% approval rating.

Given the low quality of the democratic candidates, the strong US economy and stock market, Trump’s incumbency advantage, and overall geopolitical peace and stability, I predict Trump has a 60% chance of being reelected, versus a 55% chance a few weeks ago. This is sorta a meaningless figure because unless many trails are run, it’s impossible to know if my estimate is too high or too low.