Trump & 2020 update

Things have been pretty slow lately as I predicted a month ago they would be because Trump is pretty much in hibernation mode, and as 2019 progresses, things will get even slower leading up to the first debates and primaries of 2020 election, when things should start to pick up again.

There’s less discussion in blogs about Trump. Not much talk about how much of a “god emperor” he is or to “trust the plan,” because there is none unless it involves Israel, more labor visas, Iran, or war.

As anyone who read the blog in 2016-2017 knows, myself being a critic of democracy and elections, my expectations for Trump were pretty low and even those were not met. I was hoping there would be at least one indictment or arrest or investigation of a high-profile democratic politician or institution as part of ‘draining the swamp,’ but nothing.

As Mike Cernovich has noted, there is the perception Trump hasn’t done enough to help his most ardent online supporters, who have risked reputation damage, risked losing their social media and paypal accounts, and even risked physical harm to support Trump. In certain parts of the US, wearing a MAGA hat is an invitation to violence like flashing a wrong gang sign or something. I’m not sure of all of Trump’s options regarding de-platforming, but it seems like he is not availing himself of all of them.

Mike got a lot of push-back from that tweet and similar ones, but I think he’s correct.

Jim writes:

We are on the path to deadly violence, and Trump knows where it is going. He wants to avoid the end of that road, but his enemies lack the self control and discipline that would allow him to avoid the end of that road.

As things get hotter, Democrats are going to escalate. Trump does not want to be holy emperor Trump, but when Democrats refused to accept the election outcome, the republic suffered a death blow, even though its death is not yet that close.

I don’t see any sort of day of reckoning for the left. If that was going to happen, it would have happened already given that Trump has already had 2 years to do something, and his affinity for appointing people who hate him and later turn against him and quit, shows not only poor judgment on his part but also explains retrograde progression of the administration. It shows that we cannot blame ‘the swamp’ when these are Trump’s own decisions. My prediction is nothing drastic happens. If Trump loses, all bets are off. We return to how things were under Obama but probably worse. If he wins, I think it’s likely we’ll see a repeat of the 2018-2019 in which things muddle along despite Trump being cleared of any collusion and Trump being unwilling and or unable to do anything about left-wing corruption, social media censorship, high drug prices, immigration, or any other other stuff we care about.

Too many people assume a punctuated progression of history in which there are these drastic shifts of power, but I think not only is the current status quo likely permanent but any changes will be so gradual as if to be imperceptible.

Regarding 2020, it’s a waste of effort to try to speculate on the democratic candidates or even analyze their policies, because at such an early stage, it’s anyone race. In 2012, I thought Newt Gingrich would be the nominee because he had a lot of momentum, name recognition, and I liked him more than Romney. Wrong. Just because Biden has a small edge over the other candidates is of no way predictive of who will be the nominee. I predict a lot on this blog, but predicting the 2020 democratic nominee is a fool’s errand.

In 1999-2000, a lot of people thought McCain would be on the ticket. He dropped out in March 2000.

In 2004, Howard Dean, a favorite of the left, spectacularly imploded.

In 2007, most people thought Hillary would be the nominee.

In 2015, a lot of liberals thought Sanders had a chance, and many conservatives though that Jeb, Cruz, or Rubio would be the GOP nominee. Of course, the final outcome was Clinton vs. Trump.