Trump, wall, and shutdown: what happens next

From CNN Exclusive: White House preparing draft national emergency order, has identified $7 billion for wall:

According to options being considered, the administration could pull: $681 million from Treasury forfeiture funds, $3.6 billion in military construction, $3 billion in Pentagon civil works funds, and $200 million in Department of Homeland Security funds, the official said.

This gives hope that Trump has options, although none of them are that great. Here’s what will happen: The February 15 deadline will pass without a breakthrough, and Trump will declare the national emergency. Trump may be able to procure some funding for a wall from above sources and then on the 2020 campaign trial promise to actually begin construction if reelected, with the funds. Or he may authorize the military to lay some wire fences and use that as evidence of success. Or he may capitulate and grant amnesty in exchange for funding (worst outcome of the three). Either way, this is not what voters had in mind, but I suppose it’s better than nothing. The challenge Trump faces is that excessive immigration is not an emergency…I wish it were, but compared to things like terrorism, it isn’t in the eyes of most policy makers. A lot of his voters think it’s an emergency, but the people who run things don’t.

There are grumblings of Trump caving in by ending the shutdown, which does not surprise me, because in spite of his tough campaign rhetoric, Trump is not an especially forceful leader, but rather a forceful campaigner.

Disappointed, Vox Day writes:

Donald Trump was elected to do two things: Drain the Swamp and Build the Wall. Precisely none of his supporters give a fraction of a quantum of a damn about “getting the government back to work” or “getting the Democrats on board” or “making a really, really great deal”. That was the case in 2016. It is still the case now.


It is looking more and more as if Trump is not a wartime consigliere, which is unfortunate because America is at war. And here is a hint: if the headlines are going to read “Trump caves”, then you probably shouldn’t agree to it.

This pretty much agrees with my commentary way back in July 2017 of Trump being more of a manager than a commander, although I came to this realization well before Vox and others did. Just another example of this blog being ahead of the curve.

I knew this because I have been following Trump long before he ran for office, such as his TV show The Apprentice, which I watched in 2004. I know his style and how he works. People think Trump in real life is like how he is on the campaign trail, on Twitter, or when mouthing-off to the media. Wrong.

Trump does well in situations where he has total control, such as on a campaign trail, on twitter, when lambasting the press and media in front of the cameras, or running one of his TV shows, but working with Congress is not like that. Upchuck Schumer has an IQ of 160 (based on a perfect score on the ‘old’ SAT) and decades of experience in government and policy. Peloci is also at the top of her game too. The same negotiation techniques that Trump uses in real estate and TV are not going to work on people with such high IQs and much more political savvy.