Been long bitcoin since 2013. Glad I ignored the headlines about bubbles. The news is useless, as are most forecasts. For every bubble the media calls correctly, they get 10-20 of them wrong. Bitcoin is like General Electric and PG&E…not only does it fill a specific niche/function, but it’s not going anywhere. Against all odds it succeeded and surpassed everyone’s expectations.
Including Bitcoin Cash, the price is closer to $3400, a 1,600-2,000% gain since mid-2013 (by late 2013, the price got to $800-1000).
As for the media being wrong, they were wrong about:
-The post-2009 bull market, which keeps going on and on. Since 2014 when I launched this blog, I have been telling people to buy. The S&P 500 (including dividends) has gained a whopping 25% since early 2014.
-All of the ‘FANG’ stocks (Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Netflix keep going up…recommended all of them , except Netflix)
-Hillary winning, but the pundits incorrectly predicted that Trump and Brexit would cause a recession (the exact opposite happened, and the S&P 500 is up 12% this year…I predict it has a lot further to go).
-Tesla (the media sure got this one wrong. In 2013, the left-wing NYTs wrote a hit piece about Tesla, when the stock was at $40. Tesla shares have risen from $130 in early 2014 to $340+ now, and will keep going up despite all the failed predictions of Tesla being a bubble. This blog was right about Tesla here and here.)
-Bay Area real estate prices. Home prices in America most expensive areas refuse to fall despite the media’s insistence that prices are in a bubble.
-Doom & gloom predictions about Ebola, Russia, Emails, Comey, Impeachment—all wrong
-Web 2.0 being a bubble (a broken clock is right twice a day, but the liberal media is never right). Uber is under attack by the media for alleged sexism and and breaking the law. I predict Uber will prevail…the media wants Uber to fail.
-The mass hysteria over the alleged ‘college rape epidemic’, which turned out to be a bunch of hoaxes.
-Hillary Clinton’s health (Hillary Clinton collapsed after attending a 911 memorial and the media tried to cover it up, but failed)
-Hyperinflation & dollar collapse (Treasury bond yields are the lowest they have been in decades)
-A ‘post America era’…this is not really a media prediction, but rather a prediction made by many economists in pundits between 2008-2010. During the depth and recovery of the financial crisis, many pundits predicted a ‘new status quo’ with Europe, not America, being on top. They were wrong. Instead, China and America dominate economically and culturally, with France, Germany, and the UK suffocating under the weight of economic stagnation, incompetent leadership, migrants, and general societal decay.
and many more…
Of course, bitcoin could fall 70% by next year…or it may double again. But given the media’s certitude that THIS IS REALLY THE TOP, and the media’s horrible track record regarding everything, I’m erring towards the latter.