Item #1: Trump weighs Iran war expansion as fresh US strikes target Hormuz shipping threats. The Iran war is fully “on,” just as I predicted all along since March. Trump is not even pretending there is going to be yet another “deal” or “ceasefire”. Such hopes evaporated 2 weeks ago. If you were on Twitter… Continue reading The Daily View 7/22/2026: Iran, Polymarket, Math, AI & Job Loss, Trump

This went viral today, “AI’s solution to 87-year-old riddle takes mathematicians by surprise.” Levent Alpöge at Harvard University wrote on X on 19 July that the Jacobian conjecture – which academics have spent decades trying to prove was true – is actually false, giving a tiny, 216-character counterexample as proof. I will admit I wish… Continue reading The Jacobian conjecture falls to AI

The big story is Andrew and Tristan Tate were arrested in Florida on charges of rape and sex trafficking: LONDON – Influencer Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan have been arrested in Miami after British authorities issued 38 new charges against them, including allegations of rape and sex trafficking. The United Kingdom’s Crown Prosecution Service… Continue reading Andrew and Tristan Tate arrested in Florida

America appears under-policed compared to European countries, which have more police per capita: France has a higher police-to-population ratio than the United States. France averages roughly 330 to 452 police officers per 100,000 residents (depending on whether specialized paramilitary forces like the Gendarmerie are included), whereas the US averages about 210 to 220 sworn officers… Continue reading Why European-Style Policing Doesn’t “Work” in the US

I have long argued that AI will not hurt the status/prestige of elite colleges. This is because the difficulty and selectivity implicitly act as an IQ filter. Even if AI enables widespread cheating in coursework, admissions can still be based on assessments that are largely immune to AI, such as proctored SATs and mathematics competitions,… Continue reading Elite Colleges Will Survive AI. The Rest Need to Adapt.

This article went massively viral, “Why American ambulance rides are so expensive?” The focus is on ambulances, but it applies to all aspects of the US healthcare system. Ambulances are expensive for the same reasons the rest of American healthcare is expensive. There are factors unique to healthcare, and especially in America, that makes it… Continue reading Healthcare Is Expensive Because Americans Expect So Much from It

Item #1. From Scott, “The AI Superforecasters Are Here” He writes: You, personally, should not play the prediction markets in the AI future. You’ll be competing against smarter-than-top-human superforecasters that can spend subjective weeks cogitating on every single question, and you will definitely lose. To the contrary, it would actually be easier, at least initially.… Continue reading The Daily View 7/11/2026: Superforecasters , Iran, and AI & Cheating in College

I saw these stories going viral, all within the span of a few weeks: I’m a professor at Berkeley. Bring back this requirement for entry. and Students are doing worse than you think College Students Are Losing the Ability to Read There have been a lot of stories lately about the apparent lack of preparedness… Continue reading Why It Can Be True That Students Are Both Smarter and Less Prepared

Interesting post from Richard Hanania, “Sixteen Fun Facts about Me.” It’s too bad the article is paywalled after his fourth “fact,” but some parts are similar to or contrast with my own life. I don’t have much contact with my family, and haven’t maintained contact with any friends from elementary school, high school, or college.… Continue reading The TV Addict Who Became a Macro Forecaster

I have been thinking why UBI and single-payer healthcare is totally unworkable in America. With fears of AI leading to mass-unemployment constantly in the news, the idea of a UBI is often touted as a solution. Democrats similarly have pushed for wealth taxes and universal healthcare, and neither have made much ground. A California wealth… Continue reading Why we cannot have nice things