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The ‘success sequence’, conceived in a 2009 Brookings report, describes the roadmap young people ought to follow to optimize their likelihood of success at life. But there are numerous confounders, and I’m skeptical of the data or the conclusions drawn. 1. The underlying variable could be family wealth. Having rich parents or having wealthy in-laws… Continue reading The New ‘Success Sequence’

In a post from last week I wrote: By being right I mean one or both of the following conditions are met, although they are not necessarily mutually inclusive [2]: Bitcoin is below $25k–and or–it lags the QQQ. My thesis for years has been that ‘big tech’ is the future, not Bitcoin. Accordingly, I am… Continue reading Five years later, the verdict is in: Big tech beats crypto

Item #1: University backlash College presidents have taken heat for not doing more to crackdown on anti-Israel speech, which interestingly in the case of Harvard morphed into a plagiarism scandal involving its president, Claudine Gay. [To settle the matter, she submitted ‘corrections’, which is bullshit given that if this happened to anyone else they would… Continue reading The Daily View: 12/17/2023: University backlash, Eli Lilly, Morning people, Food, and AI

Stock market makes new highs, DJIA crosses 37,000: The vibes are good again https://t.co/2ulV1Wwvq3 — Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) December 13, 2023 Looks like I was right yet again to buy the dips and to hold. For 2023, I rolled over my 2022 market and economic predictions, meaning I changed nothing. And sure enough, 2023 has… Continue reading Stocks surge to new highs for 2023: right again

Bitcoin crashed again, from $43k to $41k, like I said last week it would. I know it’s still a lot higher than my last screenshot when it it was at $26k, but I will still be right. [1] It’s been 2 months now since this ETF hype began in early October and still no hint… Continue reading Crypto crashes again: two questions for ‘crypto people’

Form a passage of Antifragile, 2014, by Nassim Taleb: Regarding the inability to keep secrets, I guess he’s never heard of NDAs. An obvious example are the strategies used by the famous quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies, which decades later are still a secret despite considerable speculation and debate online. You would think at some… Continue reading Knowing how to think

Item #1. GOP debates. I’m not sure why this is such a big deal on Twitter given that none of these candidates have any hope of becoming the nominee. As I said earlier, unless something happens to Trump, which imho is unlikely given what he has survived thus far, he is the nominee, full stop.… Continue reading The Daily View 12/8/2023: GOP debates, Bitcoin, Ai, Uber, and Mr. Beast

I saw this article going viral WHAT IF AMERICANS ARE HAPPY AT WORK?, by Derek Thompson, which got me thinking about the topic of work. In regard to the oft-asked question, “Why do Americans work so hard or so much?” the default explanation is that American are overworked out of economic necessity. Americans must work… Continue reading Why Americans Work So Much–Some Overlooked Explanations

Re-tweeted by Taleb. This is Taleb’s obligatory ‘defend the rich’ re-tweet about wealth being dynamic, as if this is some sort of profound insight or justifies wealth inequality: The United States is an unequal country but the inequality is dynamic: it’s very hard to to hang on to wealth for multiple generations… or even one… Continue reading Why wealth may have been more fleeting and dynamic in the past, compared to stasis today

Reminder that there are honest seed-oil apologists and informed seed-oil apologists, but there are no honest, informed seed-oil apologists. https://t.co/P8tlnJwlez — exfatloss (@exfatloss) December 1, 2023 The obvious objection to this is if obesity is caused by seed oils, then it logically follows that solving the obesity crisis is as strait-forward as eliminating said oils,… Continue reading Stop blaming seed oils for obesity