Author: smartistone

Yesterday, a Bitcoin whale offloaded $8 billion of Bitcoin to Galaxy Digital. This has significant implications, all negative, even though the ‘crypto media’ is trying to spin it as a positive. How is increasing the supply ever a positive? Why else are stock buybacks bullish? Because they reduce the supply. Conversely, stock offerings are a… Continue reading The bad news for Bitcoin: far fewer coins are lost than assumed

From Garry Taubes, The Curious Lessons of Calorie Restriction, in which he contrasts his ad libitum low-carb approach to Peter Attia. He writes: Where Peter and I diverge in our thinking in this case is on a simple but critical point: when carbohydrate-restricted diets are prescribed for weight loss—i.e., a version of DR, by Peter’s… Continue reading Garry Taubes is wrong: low-carb is not superior for weight loss

A common argument is that AI will make smart people redundant, as their jobs are replaced or AI outperform them. I disagree. AI does not change this or devalue IQ. As I argued last week, AI will only amplify differences of human capital. Smarter people will be able to use AI more effectively to increase… Continue reading AI as a force multiplier

The big story is the Trump administration’s reversal and denial of the Epstein list. Last night, Trump put out an incoherent rant telling people to ignore Epstein, generating confusion and anger among some of his online “supporters”, which I add in quotes because I also believe some of this controversy is part of a demoralization… Continue reading Trump’s Epstein Reversal

I saw this Reddit post going massively viral, ““Fast metabolism” is a lie, stop making yourself feel bad.” It got 1829 votes and 288 comments, indicative of considerable discussion and controvery. As I wrote in the posts “Individual differences of metabolism are real and matter” and “Slow metabolisms are not a myth“, to deny that… Continue reading Fast or slow metabolisms are not a “lie”. It’s time to put this myth to rest.

I saw this viral post by Dwarkesh Patel, “Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner.” This is a reasonable take on AI in contrast to the hype that is typical of the topic. There is a middle ground of people, such as myself and Freddie deBoer, who believe AI will lead to… Continue reading Dwarkesh Patel on AGI: Separating AI hype from reality

Elon’s political party “America party” is official: There are several possibilities: 1. Elon does not actually understand how electoral politics works. I see this as unlikely given his experience with politics under Trump. 2. Elon knows his party will split the vote, but does not care. 3. Elon hopes to cost Trump’s successor reelection, as… Continue reading Elon’s “America party” : my thoughts

June 2025 was the most eventful month in a long time, with the following big events having transpired: -Iran strikes -LA riots (remember that?) -The rise of Zohan Mamdani -Vance Boelter -Peter Thiel interview (not really newsworthy, but a major meme-worthy event online) -‘Big Beautiful Bill’ (which despite the protestations of Elon Musk, passed) -Elon-Trump… Continue reading A nation in perpetual crisis

I saw this interesting post, “Intelligence Is Not Magic, But Your Threshold For “Magic” Is Pretty Low.” None of these examples are that impressive. I would say someone who can learn advanced math is more impressive than being able to draw a skyline from memory. In the case of El Chapo running his drug business… Continue reading Persuasion techniques are overrated and survivorship bias

The ‘some guy’ phenomenon is my observation that the best people in the world at a given task or skill are unknown or random people. Instead of only famous people or credentialed experts, breakthroughs are being made by nobodies. The best trader and investor in the world is some blogger or random guys on Twitter.… Continue reading The ‘some guy’ phenomenon