Author: smartistone

The big story is the Trump administration’s reversal and denial of the Epstein list. Last night, Trump put out an incoherent rant telling people to ignore Epstein, generating confusion and anger among some of his online “supporters”, which I add in quotes because I also believe some of this controversy is part of a demoralization… Continue reading Trump’s Epstein Reversal

I saw this Reddit going massively viral, ““Fast metabolism” is a lie, stop making yourself feel bad.” It got 1829 votes and 288 comments, indicative of considerable discussion and controvery. As I wrote in the posts “Individual differences of metabolism are real and matter” and “Slow metabolisms are not a myth“, to deny that fast… Continue reading Fast or slow metabolisms are not a “lie”. It’s time to put this myth to rest.

I saw this viral post by Dwarkesh Patel, “Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner.” This is a reasonable take on AI in contrast to the hype that is typical of the topic. There is a middle ground of people, such as myself and Freddie deBoer, who believe AI will lead to… Continue reading Dwarkesh Patel on AGI: Separating AI hype from reality

Elon’s political party “America party” is official: There are several possibilities: 1. Elon does not actually understand how electoral politics works. I see this as unlikely given his experience with politics under Trump. 2. Elon knows his party will split the vote, but does not care. 3. Elon hopes to cost Trump’s successor reelection, as… Continue reading Elon’s “America party” : my thoughts

June 2025 was the most eventful month in a long time, with the following big events having transpired: -Iran strikes -LA riots (remember that?) -The rise of Zohan Mamdani -Vance Boelter -Peter Thiel interview (not really newsworthy, but a major meme-worthy event online) -‘Big Beautiful Bill’ (which despite the protestations of Elon Musk, passed) -Elon-Trump… Continue reading A nation in perpetual crisis

I saw this interesting post, “Intelligence Is Not Magic, But Your Threshold For “Magic” Is Pretty Low.” None of these examples are that impressive. I would say someone who can learn advanced math is more impressive than being able to draw a skyline from memory. In the case of El Chapo running his drug business… Continue reading Persuasion techniques are overrated and survivorship bias

The ‘some guy’ phenomenon is my observation that the best people in the world at a given task or skill are unknown or random people. Instead of only famous people or credentialed experts, breakthroughs are being made by nobodies. The best trader and investor in the world is some blogger or random guys on Twitter.… Continue reading The ‘some guy’ phenomenon

As I discuss in the July 2022 post “Fixing the Expertise Misallocation Problem“, having a large social media following and a lot of media coverage or clout is a poor predictor of “useful, actionable advice” or accuracy. It’s as if those who have the most followers, visibility, or status who are the least effective at… Continue reading Why the Loudest Voices Give the Worst Advice

From Richard Hanania, Government Science and the Prestige Economy. Upon inspection, the premise of the article makes sense. There are areas of research in which the ROI is not so easy to quantify, if any at all. Or the benefits are farther down the road. I agree that knowledge is good in and of itself.… Continue reading What Richard Hanania gets Wrong about Government Research

Here are my thoughts about the Iran situation It’s debated if the attacks on Iran constitutes war. But it’s less debatable that it was an act of war or could be interpreted as a declaration of war. The Japanese attacks on Pearl Harbor, although limited and not affecting civilians, led to the U.S. involvement in… Continue reading Here are my thoughts about the Iran situation . A big day of gains