Month: October 2025

AI is creating so many millionaires–such as startups, investing, huge salaries, VC, consulting, etc. Even if these companies run at losses, so many people are getting rich. At the same time everyone is now wondering, “Is this the biggest bubble ever?” These bubble arguments sound reasonable and the people who make them have credentials and… Continue reading Is AI a bubble? Maybe, maybe not. Who cares.

A recurring theme is that ‘commonsense’ advice is often wrong. This is why so much advice is wrong or bad, because it’s rooted in commonsense or ‘first principle’ notions of virtue, but unsupported by empirical evidence or experience after said advice is applied and predictably fails. We live in a society, for example, where low-grade… Continue reading The pitfalls and worthlessness of commonsense advice

Bitcoin passes $122k. It would appear I was wrong about shorting Bitcoin as a hedge, but Bitcoin has a tendency of forfeiting its gains. This was seen in August 2025 when it passed $124k, only to fall to $107k weeks later. There are three factors that portend negatively to Bitcoin: 1. No progress on Bitcoin… Continue reading Bitcoin update: three negative factors, and more correct predictions

It’s interesting how ‘efficiency’ also applies to non-financial things. This can be the tendency of the lines at food stores to have the same waiting time despite differences of line length (e.g. a long line of people with small orders who are paying in cash, versus someone with a huge order that is holding everyone… Continue reading Efficient markets and the replication crisis

This tweet went hugely viral, as many can relate: Sorry but how tf do construction workers get so fat that looks like a hard job idk — Mariè (@p8stie) July 24, 2024 What is the deal with overweight blue-collar workers especially in construction, compared to sedentary office workers, who are comparably more slim? I am… Continue reading Metabolism and IQ, revisited