Two weeks ago I published “More correct predictions , and the role of IQ and forecasting” , in which I predicted no Bitcoin reserve, in addition to the success of Bitcoin hedging method, by modifying it to short Bitcoin 24-7 instead of only during market hours. Just a few hours ago, this bombshell dropped. After… Continue reading Scott Bessent rules out Bitcoin purchases, CPI low: right again
Month: August 2025
Investing for AGI/takeoff
A couple of days ago I argued that the impact of AI (in the context of LLMs) on the economy will be sanguine. This will come to the possible relief of some and to the disappointment of others. There will be no AGI, takeoff, ramp-up or other hyped-up scenarios in which AI somehow escapes its… Continue reading Investing for AGI/takeoff
Why AI has not lived up to the hype, and probably never will
In my earlier posts I argue that AI will not lead to meaningful economic change, or even boost productivity much. It will not liberate people from work, or even lessen the workload much overall. My prediction has generally been that AI will make continued, incremental progress at the sort of things it’s already good at,… Continue reading Why AI has not lived up to the hype, and probably never will
The ‘loneliness epidemic’ is also a people problem
Considerable ink has been spilled over the so-called ‘loneliness epidemic’ in recent years, with headlines like “Why have people suddenly stopped hanging out?” It’s often blamed on broad social phenomena or technology (e.g. Covid restrictions, smartphones, political division, and demographic change). But one often-overlooked aspect is the role that individuals themselves play in this. Society… Continue reading The ‘loneliness epidemic’ is also a people problem
Why the Trump tariffs were a nothing-burger
The Nasdaq has recovered all its post-Liberation day losses, and then some. The stock market is unfazed by new tariffs or the threat of additional tariffs, such as a “100% tariff on imported chips” (the stock market actually gained on this news): Does this sound familiar? Like the hockey-stick graph of Covid cases shared in… Continue reading Why the Trump tariffs were a nothing-burger
Being Smart Helps When it Comes to Success
I saw this article going viral a few days ago, “If You’re So Smart, Why Are You So Poor?” A recurring theme in these “IQ does not predict much” or “IQ is overrated” articles, such as Taleb’s viral 2019 article “IQ is a pseudoscience swindle,” is the failure of the author to take into account… Continue reading Being Smart Helps When it Comes to Success
More correct predictions , and the role of IQ and forecasting
A major part of IQ is the ability to anticipate or adapt to a changing environment. I am able to take advantage of the tendency of BTC to fall randomly or along with the stock market, but not participate on the upside. This makes shorting perfect for hedging in the event of bad news, like… Continue reading More correct predictions , and the role of IQ and forecasting
The Doom Loop
The ‘doom loop’ is composed of Epstein, Iran-Israel (and maybe Gaza) and tariffs, that alternate in the news cycle, typically one or two at a time as if in a loop. In July, Trump declared airstrikes on Iran, and Epstein was also in the news after Elon tweeted about it. Now the Iran conflict is… Continue reading The Doom Loop