Month: January 2025

The past 2 years has seen breathless proclamations by the media and ‘experts’ of an impending or inevitable ‘white-collar job apocalypse’ due to AI: With the launch of DeepSeek, we can expect such headlines will continue. My take is, the eagerly-awaited white-collar job die-off is motivated more by wishful thinking than economic reality. Claims by… Continue reading White-collar jobs will continue to thrive despite AI

I have been thinking about why some people are so much more successful compared to others. Are they smarter, luckier, or have more connections? I think a lot of it comes down to having a lot of uninterrupted free time. That is the magic ingredient or secret. Why does free time matter so much? 1.… Continue reading How much of individual success is attributable to free time?

A common narrative if that Trump’s newly-launched memecoin, $TRUMP, is a conduit for bribery. Although I’m not a fan of crypto, this argument has never made much sense or has obvious flaws. Noah Smith, in a viral article “Your memecoin is your slush fund”, writes: Suppose you wanted to buy a favor from Donald Trump,… Continue reading Memecoins are actually bad for bribery–debunking a common narrative

It looks like I was right , here, here, and here, about no Bitcoin reserve. Trump instead signed an executive order for the ironically-titled “working group” to investigate the creation of a crypto stockpile that will arrive at a decision within 180 days: To do this, Trump has set up a working group that will… Continue reading Trump Punts on the Bitcoin Reserve–Right Again

Taleb is having another one… Reframing Christoper's excellent study in terms of much much of life's results ARE NOT explained by IQ test results.By now the matter should be closed. https://t.co/K58wm9qVaA pic.twitter.com/ZCh5ZuKfm4 — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) January 22, 2025 I already refuted his points 2022, but to reiterate: 1. The claimed low correlation between… Continue reading More harsh truths about IQ and wealth or job success: why IQ matters

Day 2: $500 billion AI investment, Ross Ulbricht pardoned, and stocks up again–thanks to huge Oracle and Netflix earnings and optimism over Trump economy. Everything is going exactly as I said it would. Everyone getting wins, but people who wanted Bitcoin reserve, who left empty-handed despite donating the most. That is the irony of it.… Continue reading Day 2: The Dynamics of Power + Bonus Math Problem

The big story is no Bitcoin reserve, or any executive order regarding crypto for that matter. Although of course there is always the possibility it happens later, it does not look good given that Trump signed a bunch of other executive orders, but ignored the one thing his donors had expected and hoped for. No… Continue reading Day 1: No Bitcoin reserve. Right again?

Regarding the Trump crypto reserve, that too is setting up to be a major disappointment. I contemplated increasing my Polymarket bet against the Bitcoin reserve happening, but the terms of the contract are not clear enough. A ‘Bitcoin reserve’ can mean many things, and when a lot of money is at stake I want to… Continue reading Trump crypto reserve setting up for disappointment

In the post Why good writing is one of the hardest things ever I discuss why writing is possibly harder than STEM, even ‘hard math’, but I wish to expound on this. As someone who has done both I think I am qualified to make this determination. I’ve written math papers, read countless papers, done… Continue reading Why writing is harder than STEM, revisited

1. Interesting tweet: you know what Billionaire Patrons love? demonstrated competence in building towards goals they care about you want someone’s megaphone? be usefulhttps://t.co/vkfNWVNrV6 — TracingWoodgrains (@tracewoodgrains) January 16, 2025 @TheRealZBlog is correct. Trace sorta comes off as smug here by saying right-wingers are coping. Rufo benefited from huge branding by being backed by wealthy… Continue reading The Daily View: 1/1/7/2025: Merit and Punditry, Trump Crypto Reserve, Coca-Cola, the LSATs