Grey Enlightenment

I saw this going viral 50 Years Ago, Sugar Industry Paid Scientists to Point Blame at Fat. Every few years this story resurfaces. It’s popular narrative, and maybe there is some truth to it in that ‘big sugar’ sought lay the blame at the feet of fat. But this does not mean that sugar to… Continue reading Stop blaming obesity on sugar

This week was especially eventful. Item #1: Bitcoin crashes intraday on Friday on news of a possible DOJ investigation into Tether: As you can see, BTC crashed. My bitcoin shorting method specifically shorts Bitcoin when the stock market is open. This takes advantage of the tendency of whales to liquidate, and for bad news or… Continue reading The Daily View, 10/26/2024: DOJ Tether Investigation, Tesla surges, Elon + Trump, DJT stock, GLP-1 drugs

Inspired by the above exchange between Scott Alexander and a commenter on the former’s blog, a common argument I see is that Americans are overworked and have little vacation time compared to Europeans. Indeed, Americans have fewer holidays compared to Europeans and take fewer days off: As the narrative goes, this makes Americans more depressed… Continue reading Americans have less vacation time, but so what

It’s nice to see social media bringing out the best in people. There has been a lot of talk in recent weeks about prediction markets–either prediction markets inflating the suggested odds of extremely improbable candidates–or whales purportedly manipulating certain markets, such as contracts tied to Trump winning. Or the apparent disconnect between prediction market prices… Continue reading Prediction market prices are more useful than polls, but not quite probabilities either

It seemed like $70k Bitcoin was just around the corner Sunday night following renewed enthusiasm after a Trump campaign event at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s, only for the rug to be pulled out again. The magic $68k chart, which I posted months ago, is still intact. Sub $20k is still happening, likely next year (although I… Continue reading Bitcoin suddenly falls after attempt at $70k: it still sucks

It looks like the entire mainstream media is jumping on the debt crisis bandwagon, not just ‘alternative’ media like Zerohedge anymore. From Yahoo (republished from Bloomberg), US Interest Burden Hits 28-Year High, Escalating Political Risk: The Treasury spent $882 billion on net interest payments in the fiscal year through September — an average of roughly… Continue reading The National Debt is Still Not a Big Deal (For Investors)

Uber stock has surged since its IPO, far outpacing the S&P 500 in that same time period: So much for all those predictions from 2010-2020 of it running out of money. I have never seen a company as widely expected to fail or maligned by the media as Uber: Yes, Uber has lost a lot… Continue reading Uber stock surge proving how useless the financial media are

1. Although optimistic about the economy, I am looking at the 2024 election with dread. Either outcome means a more divided nation and an intensification of the culture wars, and god help us if the results are too close to call. An election in which the results are contested is the worst possible outcome. It… Continue reading The daily view 10/17/2024: Election, Billionaires, Elites, Parenting, Life Expectancy, Crime…

Regarding Trump Media, I was right in predicting it would not fail, as also widely predicted by the media. DJT stock, after having bottomed at $13, has recovered significantly: [It has gained even more since the above screenshot was taken. I wrote this post yesterday.] The fact DJT has done so well recently and has… Continue reading Why Trump Media stock (DJT) stock is surging: free advertising

I saw this going viral Anthropic CEO goes full techno-optimist in 15,000-word paean to AI. The author’s predictions are way too optimistic. None of those things he predicts are going to happen, or at least not due to AI or in our lifetimes. It’s not at all going to cure cancer or cure aging, or… Continue reading AI: still stuck in the textbox