Why Trump Will Not Be Arrested

Regarding the Trump situation, my prediction is he will not be arrested, for several reasons: 1. It will set a precedent that neither side wants to embark on. It’s sometimes believed that Clinton’s impeachment was in retaliation for Nixon’s impeachment. And Trump being impeached was in retaliation for that. So this leaves the left open… Continue reading Why Trump Will Not Be Arrested

The Case Against Collapse

Credible sources are still entertaining the possibility of societal or economic collapse of the US. People are obsessed with this topic. Maybe they see collapse as an opportunity to break from the monotony of consumer capitalism, or they are bored, or something to do with ‘bullshit jobs’, which seems to come up in every discussion… Continue reading The Case Against Collapse

Superforecasting: How it’s done

Over the past 10 or so years there has been a lot of hype over superforecasting and superforecasters. Does such skill exist? I emphatically think so. From fs.blog Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters For instance, don’t ask, “Who will win the world series in 2050?” That’s impossible to forecast and unknowable. The question becomes more… Continue reading Superforecasting: How it’s done