Item 1: Polymarket. I didn’t place any Polymarket or other bets on the midterms. I only stick to betting against the “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal” or “mention markets” (against Trump mentioning crypto). Those are the only things I trade, because I have an actual edge. I don’t trade things where I have no information advantage or insufficient confidence.
So far this has gone really well, and I’m up 400-500% on those contracts in a little over 4 months:
This was the easiest payday ever—all predicted here well in advance, in April-July. People actually assigned a 90% chance of the strait traffic returning to normal. Now it’s at 10%.
Item 2: midterms. The post-midterms crash-out continues.
A reminder of how pointless the midterm convention was. The GOP got to show in primetime how tone-deaf it was to the public’s concerns. The only thing to come out of it was a false promise of $5k if they won. That was quickly forgotten after a week, despite influencers praising it as a brilliant idea.
— Scott Greer 6’2” IQ 187 (@ScottMGreer) November 8, 2026
The “everything is fucked, and Trump is going to save us” niche on Twitter is interesting to observe. It requires an unusually high, unwavering faith in politicians while at the same time decrying a system created by politicians. “Third Worldism,” to its credit, is at least logically consistent, unlike having to pretend Trump is “based,” then rationalize when he appoints staff whose beliefs conflict with those of his supporters, or explain how putting the interests of Israel or his personal financial interests ahead of America is consistent with “America First.” It takes impressive cognitive dissonance to compartmentalize this.
As I said two months ago, the Trump presidency is effectively over. The rest of 2026 and all of 2027 will be spent on Iran or other distractions, and 2028 will be consumed by the transition and campaigning for his successor, presumably Vance. He had a shot and squandered it. He pressed the “Iran” button hoping to distract voters and the media from domestic issues and boost his sagging poll numbers, and it failed. Unlike the economy or immigration, there’s no way to blame the left for this; it was entirely his own doing. Looking toward 2028, Vance offers at least some hope of meaningful change, but Rubio is rebranded status-quo conservatism. Despite all this, I still grade Trump a “B”. It’s a low bar.
Item 3: tech selloff. The Nasdaq entered correction territory this week, and I have bought the dip. Despite the market selloff this week, Anthropic still has a private valuation of $1.7 trillion. The Dems are not going to just “shut down AI” or “shut down datacenters,” as much as many may want to. There is no evidence to suggest the AI “bubble” has burst. Crypto will die well before AI does. 2-3 years from now, the buildout in hindsight will be seen as sustainable. Pundits who predicted a bubble will be scratching their heads over how SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are able to sustain $2 trillion valuations each, despite being certain in 2026 that it was a bubble.
I was right about Bitcoin crashing, and about shorting it as a hedge against the recent market selloff. This is what I have been doing since 2025, when I changed my trading method to allocate a fixed percentage of my portfolio to shorting Bitcoin. This has worked really well. I make money no matter what happens. If the market crashes, so will Bitcoin, but Bitcoin also lags on the upside when the market recovers, like in 2025-2026. At the same time, if the entire AI or semiconductor trade is a bubble (which I don’t think it is, but assuming…), then crypto will also crash. Crypto participates in all of the downside of tech stocks, but not the upside, so I cannot lose.
As shown above, QQQ and IBIT are roughly tied in performance since April 27, 2026. Now comes the divergence, in which QQQ recovers much faster than Bitcoin does. A similar pattern was seen in 2025 too. I profit from said divergence:
Item 4: strong jobs report. “‘A blowout’: US added 165,000 jobs in October, trouncing expectations”
What happened to AI destroying jobs? Just another correct forecast. It’s interesting how Freddie deBoer, an education PhD, was right about AI not destroying jobs, as was I, whereas all these “experts” with technical degrees or other tech credentials keep being wrong.
Item 5: NVDA CEO affair. Nvidia Board to Probe Spying Case After CEO Admits Affair.
Jensen Huang, NVDA’s CEO, had an affair with Alice Huang, an alleged Chinese spy. Confusingly, they share the same last name (in a country of 1.4 billion people, I guess you quickly run out of names). This was the biggest story last night. My take: it’s not that big a deal, and his career, reputation and wealth will remain intact despite short-term damage. NVDA stock will recover, assuming it hasn’t already by the time I publish this post.
Yeah, 50 years ago infidelity was a big deal for public figures and brought lasting shame; nowadays… meh. There are tons of people who have survived this, and even worse. The public has become inured to unfaithfulness, but so have the media and the various industry gatekeepers (it’s not bad enough to get someone blacklisted or made persona non grata). Except Epstein….those involved with him probably won’t recover. So there are lines that cannot be crossed, but cheating is not one of them. Hell, even beloved Patrick Stewart cheated on both of his first two wives, admitted it in his memoir, and no one cared (it amounted to a footnote of his obituary).