In “The rise of the lock-in guy,” I discuss the phenomenon of people who are smart, but this is not evident until later in life, when special circumstances align. It’s not the same as unrecognized genius. Such genius is apparent to others in childhood, but it doesn’t manifest as anything outwardly special. Unlike chess, music, or sports prodigies, such talents are less evident.
Unlike skill at investing, economics or finance, being good at chess at 30-40 is less impressive or remunerative. But unlike chess or music, there are no obvious child-prodigy equivalents for abilities like “processing information, recognizing patterns, and separating signal from noise.” Those capabilities matter most once the guardrails of adolescence and early adulthood fall away. Then the actually smart people stand out, when able to avail themselves of time, autonomy, and financial resources.
Online, often you’ll read stories from people who found school boring and that their talents were squandered–and I can relate–so now as an adult what have you done? As an adult, after gaining freedom, time, and autonomy, you still have not accomplished much, then perhaps you were never as exceptional as you were led to believe. In other words, school didn’t fail you; rather, you lived up to the potential that you always had, which was not as much as you assumed. This is yet another “black pill” of life.
Athletic ability peaks and manifests early. Those who are talented are typically identified early. If such talent is squandered, it’s gone for good. [Interestingly, “fitness influencing” is a category that does not have such an age limit and favors fast metabolism over elite performance.] Forecasting ability doesn’t diminish with age; if anything, it only improves due to crystalized intelligence. So you will sometimes find these random people who just know everything, and there were few or no clues in childhood.
People who have made lots of money with prediction markets fall into this latter category. Many of these people, who are now in their 20s and 30s, were probably outwardly ordinary or unimpressive growing up, but there was a brilliance hidden beneath. And now with these platforms, such individuals have found ways to glean quasi-insider information that eludes others, profiting from this information asymmetry. For me, it’s investing and forecasting.