Deal or no deal? White House says Iran deal could take days.
It was predictable how the headlines changed from “a deal is certain” 14 hours ago, to now “maybe?”
It’s the same pattern we’ve seen for the past 3 months. There is not going to be any sort of “deal” because neither side can possibly agree to each other’s terms. Meanwhile, the stock market keeps going up, as I also correctly precited. At this point the public has lost track or interest in which “deal” or ceasefire we’re on. After a few days of negotiations, it’s back to Trump posting memes of attacking ships, and more empty threats and the usual bluster that has typified both of his terms.
Iran is today’s Iran or Afghanistan, but thankfully fewer deaths. This is going to go on until at least after the 2028 election, and it will be up to Vance (or whoever replaces Trump) to deal with it. This also agrees with my prediction of the strait remaining in some quasi-blockaded state until after the 2028 election. Similar to the Russo-Ukrainian War, neither side wants to capitulate, and the stronger side has neither the firepower, inclination, or resources to end the conflict decisively. The result is a stalemate lasts for years.
It’s as if you vote for “no new wars” and you get wars anyway. Regarding the black pilling, people are so dumb when it comes to politics. Since when was the Republican Party ever anti war? The 1930s? Just because it’s Trump doesn’t change that. If you’re shook or surprised at what Trump is doing, politics is not for you. Stick to sports or something. But the majority of his supporters, except for a vocal minority online, are agnostic about Iran or support war. This is why Trump’s approval is still in the low 40s. He’s only lost the middle. A similar pattern was seen with Biden during his term. This reflects the general bipartisan dissatisfaction with America’s leadership.
A good way to profit from this is betting “no” on strait traffic returning to normal by Dec 2026 on Polymarket/Kalshi. The “no” contract is trading at 20 cents. This is 7 months for a 400% return. This is better than betting against a ceasefire, because even with a ceasefire, Iran will continue to control the strait and collect high tolls, which will reduce traffic. I am pairing this with shorting Bitcoin and going “long” stocks, so I will profit no matter what happens.
If strait traffic returns to normal, this would imply a resolution of the conflict and more upside for stocks. Bitcoin will lag regardless, but will drop a lot if the Iran situation worsens, and I will profit from Polymarket bets, too. So this easily negates any short-lived decline in the stock market. Stocks will quickly rebound from bad Iran news to new highs, but Bitcoin will lag, and my Polymarket bet will gain 5x.