The big story is Trump threatening to blockade the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks collapse. Yet again, when I claim to be the best macro forecaster, trader, and money manager, it’s all backed by quantifiable evidence and results. I was short Bitcoin, as per my usual method, which predicably collapsed after the story broke:… Continue reading Trump threatens Strait of Hormuz blockade, Bitcoin crashes

The big story is on the 8th of April, 2026, Iran and the US agreed to a 2 week ceasefire. How did my forecasts stack up? I was right where it mattered most: when my money was at stake. Even if you are bearish on Trump’s foreign policy and think Iran is mess or has… Continue reading Trump: diplomacy by delay

I saw this going massively viral The total number of smart people in the world has just peaked. And now it's about to crash. pic.twitter.com/rH6hqXXTZ1 — Jonatan Pallesen (@jonatanpallesen) March 19, 2026 The common theme is that America is dumbing-down. Instead, it’s more like America is becoming smarter and dumber at the same time, and… Continue reading America is becoming smarter and dumber at the same time

Iran pushes back against Trump’s deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has become the new tariffs. It’s the same pattern of empty threats. My prediction a month ago of the strait closure lasting much longer than expected, is looking especially prescient. Trump is forced between the following choices, none of which are good.… Continue reading The daily view 4/6/2026: Iran, Metabolism, Wealth & Status, Downwardly-mobile American young people

It’s not an exaggeration to say AI has taken the world by storm. Remember this? Wonder how many guys plunged into a psychotic state & left completely broken by this event. pic.twitter.com/LQ5gwNSVAk — HB (@Casagrandezz) January 31, 2021 In early 2021 Mark Zuckerberg was on top of the world. Facebook stock, before its rebranding as… Continue reading AI Changes Everything–and Nothing

When you look at tweets by Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen, Chamath, etc. that are factually wrong (about things that can be easily verified online) or show a lack of self or situational awareness, it makes you wonder how it’s possible for people who are so successful to be so consistently wrong all the time. For… Continue reading Why successful people often have bad opinions online

Time for another bulletin about the stock market, Iran, and trading. So many people are spiraling online about Iran, or how trump has ‘betrayed the base’. As I said earlier, this is not that expected nor unpresented, and Trump’s approval ratings have remained stable at around 40-41%. This is low, but it was like this… Continue reading Update on Iran: Why I remain bullish on stocks and bearish on Bitcoin

In this post I explain how an eavesdropper with access to Trump’s Truth Social backend could have profited by reading the text Trump inputs before he submits it. This is all technically feasible. For context, on March 23th, 15 minutes before Trump announced a tentative ceasefire with Iran, an unknown trader made a large suspicious… Continue reading Insider trading with Truth Social and form capture

I saw this article going viral, “How Can America Be So Miserable When It’s So Rich?” (obligatory archive link) Both of those statements are true, and until recently, frankly, they stumped me. How could it possibly be rational to feel such prolonged pessimism in the face of such extraordinary economic growth? Over the last quarter-century,… Continue reading How Can America Be So Miserable When It’s So Rich?

Earlier today the U.S. proposed a peace deal, which Iran predictably rejected. My forecasts tend to be optimistic, but I predict Trump has boxed himself in and that his options are limited to the strait remaining closed for far longer than anyone possibly expects, until midterms or even 2028, or that Trump will have to… Continue reading The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, possibly until 2028