Category: Uncategorized

I want to revisit my 2024 post, “Optimality“. The idea is that everyone is, in some sense, optimized for their roles. Additionally, the kinds of people who end up in certain roles are more or less what you’d expect based on a combination of attributes–physical appearance, temperament, intellect, attractiveness, and so on. Consider physiognomy. It’s… Continue reading Optimality, revisited

Time for another bulletin or transaction. Tweets from 1-2 weeks ago that expressed skepticism about Trump or falling support, are already aging badly, as the stock market makes new highs and Iran is already in the rearview mirror: You can probably put this in this same category as his promise to end Iranian civilization. More… Continue reading The ‘MAGA divorce’ does not matter

Trump is facing manufactured controversy after depicting himself as Jesus in a (now-deleted) tweet. The always-wrong loser media is trying to foment division within Trump supporters again by creating controversy where there otherwise wouldn’t be any. The media scours Twitter or other social media for Republicans (typically, never-Trumpers or “Groyper types”) who were offended by… Continue reading The Trump-Jesus non-controversy

The big story is Trump threatening to blockade the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks collapse. Yet again, when I claim to be the best macro forecaster, trader, and money manager, it’s all backed by quantifiable evidence and results. I was short Bitcoin, as per my usual method, which predicably collapsed after the story broke:… Continue reading Trump threatens Strait of Hormuz blockade, Bitcoin crashes

The big story is on the 8th of April, 2026, Iran and the US agreed to a 2 week ceasefire. How did my forecasts stack up? I was right where it mattered most: when my money was at stake. Even if you are bearish on Trump’s foreign policy and think Iran is mess or has… Continue reading Trump: diplomacy by delay

I saw this going massively viral The total number of smart people in the world has just peaked. And now it's about to crash. pic.twitter.com/rH6hqXXTZ1 — Jonatan Pallesen (@jonatanpallesen) March 19, 2026 The common theme is that America is dumbing-down. Instead, it’s more like America is becoming smarter and dumber at the same time, and… Continue reading America is becoming smarter and dumber at the same time

Iran pushes back against Trump’s deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has become the new tariffs. It’s the same pattern of empty threats. My prediction a month ago of the strait closure lasting much longer than expected, is looking especially prescient. Trump is forced between the following choices, none of which are good.… Continue reading The daily view 4/6/2026: Iran, Metabolism, Wealth & Status, Downwardly-mobile American young people

It’s not an exaggeration to say AI has taken the world by storm. Remember this? Wonder how many guys plunged into a psychotic state & left completely broken by this event. pic.twitter.com/LQ5gwNSVAk — HB (@Casagrandezz) January 31, 2021 In early 2021 Mark Zuckerberg was on top of the world. Facebook stock, before its rebranding as… Continue reading AI Changes Everything–and Nothing

When you look at tweets by Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen, Chamath, etc. that are factually wrong (about things that can be easily verified online) or show a lack of self or situational awareness, it makes you wonder how it’s possible for people who are so successful to be so consistently wrong all the time. For… Continue reading Why successful people often have bad opinions online

Time for another bulletin about the stock market, Iran, and trading. So many people are spiraling online about Iran, or how trump has ‘betrayed the base’. As I said earlier, this is not that expected nor unpresented, and Trump’s approval ratings have remained stable at around 40-41%. This is low, but it was like this… Continue reading Update on Iran: Why I remain bullish on stocks and bearish on Bitcoin