Category: Uncategorized

I saw this article going viral, “How Can America Be So Miserable When It’s So Rich?” (obligatory archive link) Both of those statements are true, and until recently, frankly, they stumped me. How could it possibly be rational to feel such prolonged pessimism in the face of such extraordinary economic growth? Over the last quarter-century,… Continue reading How Can America Be So Miserable When It’s So Rich?

Earlier today the U.S. proposed a peace deal, which Iran predictably rejected. My forecasts tend to be optimistic, but I predict Trump has boxed himself in and that his options are limited to the strait remaining closed for far longer than anyone possibly expects, until midterms or even 2028, or that Trump will have to… Continue reading The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, possibly until 2028

There’s a common narrative that a ground invasion of Iran would be greatly unpopular. Scott Greer tweeted that a ground invasion would have no support: A ground invasion is idiotic and has zero public support — Scott Greer 6’2” IQ 187 (@ScottMGreer) March 21, 2026 But it would have approval with most of his ‘base’,… Continue reading A ground invasion of Iran would not be as unpopular as commonly assumed

Bad political leadership has been the default mode in America for a long time. Expectations are already very low to begin with, yet those already keep being challenged. The media could promote smarter and better choices of candidates. Voters could also choose better candidates, especially during primaries where it matters most. But this does not… Continue reading Bad leadership as the default

I saw this tweet going viral about the Minnesota Starvation Experiment: The craziest study ever – The Minnesota Starvation Experiment 32 young men were put on a 40% calorie-restricted diet for 6 months, while staying physically very active They lost 25% of their body weight by the end of it Here's what this study contributed… Continue reading Why the Minnesota Starvation Experiment Doesn’t Generalize to Modern Dieting

I saw this tweet going viral. This reads as a reframing of the adage “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence,” often attributed to Carl Sagan. People mistake their own “IQ bubble” as evidence that no one is significantly smarter than they are, leading them to overestimate their own intelligence. How do you know… Continue reading To flout or flaunt IQ? Choose the second.

I saw this viral post by Matt Walsh deploring the use of AI in writing: The number of people who clearly use AI to craft basic posts on this site, and replies to posts, is pretty shocking. Once you learn how to spot AI writing, you see it absolutely everywhere on here. It’s unmistakable. The… Continue reading No, Matt Walsh, the use of AI in writing is perfectly fine

As I correctly predicted months ago, Trump’s main focus is on foreign policy, whether it’s Greenland, Venezuela, and now Iran, which similar to Covid and the impeachment hearing during his first term, will consume the rest of his second. The below tweet was posted on January 15, 2026, two months before the Iran strikes: This… Continue reading Foreign policy takes precedence over domestic issues.

In part one, I discuss how selection effects can bias our perception of reality. For studies of weight gain/loss and metabolism on non-obese subjects, it may not be possible to extrapolate such results to obese people. Now I want to bring attention to the second claim, “drug dealers earn minimum wage,” popularized by the 2005… Continue reading The problem with studies and extrapolating ‘old data’ to the present

Below are three claims that are popular on social media and often treated as articles of faith, even though the data behind them may be flimsy, outdated, or biased by selection effects: 1. People’s metabolisms do not slow until the age of 60. 2. Drug dealers effectively only earn minimum wage. 3. The link between… Continue reading Debunking common assumptions, part 1