Tag Archives: Trump Impeachment odds

Grey Notes: Trump is ‘Junk’

According to the bookies, the odds of Trump being impeached or stepping down before the end of his first term are about 50%.

This means you can double your money in four years by taking the opposite side of this bet. This represents an annual compounded return (or yield to maturity) of 19%. Like a bond, Trump being impeached or stepping down is the same as a default. (Specifically, because a betting contract doesn’t pay coupons, it is a zero-coupon bond that trades at 50% below par.) A 5-year junk bond rated ‘C’ or worse typically pays 5% a year. Thus, this bet is like buying a junk bond that expires in 4 years, but the returns are so much higher, making this a something like ‘triple-F’ rated junk bond in the eyes of bookies. Usually, bonds issued by companies that are close to bankruptcy have such high yields. This represents extreme pessimism about the future of the Trump administration.

As mentioned last week, these odds are absurdly high. Trump is not going anywhere, sorry.

Grey Notes: No Trump Impeachment

If Trump is Impeached, it Might Be the End of America:

It could become a sort of reverse Cambodian Year Zero. In 1975, Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge took control of Cambodia, declared all money valueless and forced the “New People”—urban artists and intellectuals—out into the countryside to work the fields. The idea was social fairness and mass production of food, but the results were the exact opposite. Over 3 million people starved to death and the society collapsed. Tyranny reigned in the extreme. It wasn’t until the Vietnamese stepped in to re-assert order that the country stopped its free fall into the Stone Age.

If Trump is impeached, the United States could face an opposite, yet potentially similar scenario. If rural people begin what’s effectively a mass general strike, urbanites won’t be forced out of the city by the government, they’ll be forced out by necessity. The price of food will skyrocket to the point of being unaffordable for anyone but the very richest of city-dwellers. Lines of production and transport will break down from lack of labor and self-sabotage, and the economy will begin folding in on itself.

No, unlike anarchists and SJWs, ‘the right’ doesn’t throw temper tantrums when they don’t get their way.

Donald Trump’s presidency ‘likely to be second shortest in history’, says presidential historian

Trump impeached? You can bet on it


Paddy Power currently has the odds of a first-term Trump impeachment at 2/1. Ladbrokes is much more pessimistic about Trump’s prospects and currently lists the odds that Trump will “leave office via impeachment or resignation before end of first term” at even. In addition, Ladbrokes lists the odds that Trump with “serve full term” in office at 4/5.

These odds are absurdly high given that only two presidents have been impeached in the history of the United States. Given the GOP control of the House, the odds of impeachment are even worse.

And ‘Vanity Fair’, the magazine that introduced the world to Caitlin Jenner:


Nevermind all the times Obama violated the Constitution…

The desperation of the left is manifestly obvious. House Republicans know that impeaching Trump will doom their reelection campaigns. Also, Trump has not actually done anything to warrant impeachment…the left has to create their own alternate reality when facts alone won’t suffice. If Trump’s competence becomes a concern (which is also very unlikely), most likely Congress and the courts will just stonewall him.