Tag Archives: emails

Hillary’s 12 point lead shrinks down to just ONE POINT

November 8th cannot come soon enough as the Hillary campaign watches its lead, once as high as 12 points, evaporate to just two:

And this was before the Friday email story, so it’s possible Trump may be ahead by a few points by now. Nine days is an eternity in an election this close and with so little time left…and the timing could not have have been worse for her…a definitive link between the Clinton Foundation and breach of law, and it may be over.

Come Tuesday, millions of Americans of all socioeconomic backgrounds, from home makers, to while collar professionals, to contractors who drive pickup trucks, will converge at their local polling place, and from the privacy of their voting booth give their metaphorical stamp of approval to the one who will (or at least try) to make America great again, Donald J. Trump. And maybe he will win. And if he does, it will be a major repudiation of big-state liberalism. Goldman and other donors will not be pleased.

First it was Brexit and now this. Maybe we’ll look back fondly at the tranquility that characterized pre-2014 society, that ended when the damn that held decades of national angst finally burst. People having enough of trade deals they neither like nor understand. Tired of a recovery that may have lifted the boats of Wall St. but not theirs. Or nothing happens an this all blows over as it always has in the past, which I think is a more likely possibility, but the former has increased in odds. I don’t want to fall into the doom and gloom/sensationalism trap of declaring a ‘new paradigm’ just because the ‘status quo’ suffers a small setback here and there.

According to 538, Hillary’s odds have fallen – sightly- from as high as 85% last week to now 78%.

One reason her odds are still so high as to do with the electoral map, which still favors Clinton:

As it stands (assuming the polls are correct), Trump needs Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and Colorado.

The ‘nightmare’ scenario is if the results for these states are too close to call and are challenged. It would be like Florida in 2000 but multiplied by five. The recounts would take months, and then if Hilly gets indicted it gets much more complicated. There is possibility Hillary is undone not by people voting for Trump, but by her own malfeasance.