It’s another morning of the familiar sight of bombed-out buildings and smoke. My prediction is there will be no productive negotiations between Iran, Israel, and the US. The way these conflicts have typically resolved is Iran spontaneously relenting, typically for 9-12 months, until resuming. Iran initially attacked Israel in April 2024, paused until August, and… Continue reading Iran-Israel situation update: do not expect productive negotiations

I saw this post by Jeremiah Johnson, “Persistence Beats Talent: And how to think about achieving success.” It’s become fashionable in recent years to downplay the role of talent, or to deny it altogether. Concepts like “grit,” popularized by Angela Duckworth, and “growth mindset,” promoted by Carol Dweck, have gained traction as alternatives to innate… Continue reading Sorry, but Persistence does Not Beat Talent

Polymarket as of 6/17/2025 is giving a 58% chance of “US military action against Iran before July,” where this is defined as: For the purposes of this market, a “military action” will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a… Continue reading War cannot be ruled out

A recurring complaint I have seen by Richard Hanania and others on the center/middle-right is that the tech-right, who are otherwise intelligent, come off as dull, uniformed or intellectually-incurious about politics: The high-IQ tech right also shares the same informational environment as the dumb masses. They may be smart, but they have a deep contempt… Continue reading Why do smart people have bad political takes?

The news cycle is moving so fast. Just 2 days ago, the big story was riots and the plane crash. Now it’s Israel’s airstrikes on Iran. This is being framed as Israel thwarting Trump’s attempts at peace talks or even as the prelude to world war. But strategic airstrikes of military or nuclear targets is… Continue reading Israel strikes Iran, again

It looks like I was right again on multiple counts. First, I predicted that stocks would quickly recover from tariff-related losses and to buy the dips. Indeed, the Nasdaq has recovered all its losses and is within striking distance of a new high: Second, I was right about inflation being muted despite the hype about… Continue reading Muted Inflation , Stocks Surge, and the Rise of Elon Musk

I saw this article going viral a few days ago Being fat is a trap. It generated 350 comments in under a day, which is a lot. Given that 75% of Americans are obese or overweight, it’s understandable that there is considerable interest in this topic. The funny thing about dieting advice is it’s always… Continue reading The obesity trap, and common misconceptions about obesity

I looks like I was right again. A few days ago, I wrote that Elon had ulterior motives and was only feigning concern over the national debt and spending in regard to his opposition to Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’. I said: Elon dug up some 2011-2012 tweets about how Trump used to be a fiscal… Continue reading From ‘DOGE hero’ to zero…

Last week I wrote: Item 2#: Bitcoin falls below $104K. I was also right about Bitcoin lagging stocks, as it has done for the past few weeks. I have greatly profited by shorting Bitcoin while being long tech stocks. My account balances keep making new highs on a daily or weekly basis due to the… Continue reading Bitcoin crashes and Elon and Trump lock horns over debt, spending bill

AI has basically revealed modern college education for the careerist farce it is, in particular the humanities, where cheating is especially prevalent and hard to prevent. It’s not even an open secret anymore that the only thing that matters is the credential, not the learning. A solution, albeit a long shot, is to make it… Continue reading AI has revealed the modern liberal arts education for a farce