How I Understand Stocks and Economics

The S&P 500 keeps making new highs. It can easily post another 20% gains for 2020. When I say that I am one of the greatest financial forecasters and stock pickers ever, it’s not hyperbole , but backed by data. For example, was right about…

Escalation against Iran good for Trump, stock market

War or not, there is going to be more defense build-up as a consequence of Soleimani’s assassination, which is good for defense stocks. From a 2020 strategic standpoint, assassinating Soleimani works in Trump’s favor because it boosts patriotism and nationalism among his boomer/gen-x base. On…

Getting Sunk Costs Wrong

A 2009 article from Seth Godin’s blog recently went viral, Ignore Sunk Costs. A sunk cost in the context of the sunk cost fallacy implies a certain amount of uncertainty of ever recovering the initial investment. Misspelling a sign is a mistake that needs to…

3x Leveraged ETF Strategy Guide, Updated for 2020, Part 1: Intro

In 2016 I published my 5-part wealth creation guide about how to beat the S&P 500 by shoring leveraged inverse ETFs. Since publication, the method has worked very well, especially in 2019 when bonds and stocks surged together, but it is also complicated and difficult…

Some thoughts on Iran

Some take-aways: 1. No one has any idea what is going to happen, and anyone who claims to have some sort of special foresight as to the matter is probably full of it. Unlike economies and finance, predicting foreign policy is very difficult, if not…

Why the job-apocalypse probably won’t happen

From Scott’s blog WILL AUTOMATION LEAD TO ECONOMIC CRISIS?. This is not a post by Scott himself, but rather a written collaboration by two guest contributors about a mutually agreed upon topic: Adversarial collaboration on the question: “Automation/AI will not lead to a general, sustained…

Decade in review , and predictions

This feels like the longest holiday ever. Americans may think that Christmas is a huge deal, but New Years is an even bigger holiday, that unlike Christmas, is celebrated globally. New Year’s eve is a huge deal in Arab countries, especially Lebanon and the UAE,…

The source of Jewish success

Brett “the bedbug” Stephens put out an article about Jewish IQ and success, The Secrets of Jewish Genius: It’s not about having higher I.Q.s. I think in some regards, supposed Jewish intellectual and professional dominance is overstated. I have read many science papers in fields…

The evolution of the right

’80s and ’90s-era conservatism was dominated by foreign policy and culture-war issues. For example, Dan Quayle in 1992 criticized the recording industry for promoting rap music that glorified violence against police officers. The 1992 Los Angeles riots could be considered a literal culture war. And…

The smart-left

A not-so-great debate: These Democrats are killing me I keep seeing this trend of the intellectual/smart-left criticizing the 2020 democratic candidates, such as article above. I don’t remember it being this bad in 2016 or 2008, but either this year the candidates are exceptionally bad…