According to the bookies, the odds of Trump being impeached or stepping down before the end of his first term are about 50%. This means you can double your money in four years by taking the opposite side of this bet. This represents an annual compounded return (or yield to maturity) of 19%. Like a… Continue reading Grey Notes: Trump is ‘Junk’
Month: March 2017
Tyler Cowen’s The Complacent Class: Reviews and Discussion
I have compiled a list of reviews for Tyler Cowen’s new book, The Complacent Class, along with some insight. From Arnold Kling: My Review of Tyler Cowen’s Complacent Class 3. I am still not happy with Tyler’s use of the term “complacency.” I can think of three senses of the word that are floating around… Continue reading Tyler Cowen’s The Complacent Class: Reviews and Discussion
Is the World Becoming Smarter or Dumber?
A comment by Greg Cochran is going viral: There must have been some selection for IQ – without it, our brains would have disintegrated. But that selection can’t have been very strong, or intelligence would have gone up like a rocket. Today it’s going down at a rate of something like three points a century… Continue reading Is the World Becoming Smarter or Dumber?
The Industry of Gaslighting Our Culture
This Reddit post is going viral: The Industry of Gaslighting Our Culture Gaslighting – manipulate (someone) by psychological means into questioning their own sanity People typically experience gaslighting at an individual level, one spouse may gaslight another in order to gain control over the relationship, for example. Here are the signs of one individual gaslighting… Continue reading The Industry of Gaslighting Our Culture
Disturbing New Facts About American Capitalism
From WSJ: Disturbing New Facts About American Capitalism–When winners are taking all, it’s often time to buy the winners “Let your winners run” is one of the oldest adages in investing. One of the newest ideas is that the winners may be running away with everything. Modern capitalism is built on the idea that as… Continue reading Disturbing New Facts About American Capitalism
Crying Wolf: Holding the Pundits and Media Accountable for Being Wrong about Snapchat and Web 2.0
Snapchat’s valuation has now eclipsed $30 billion on its second day of trading (in agreement with my prediction in June 2014)…yet so many pundits got it wrong. But not just for Snapchat, but also Uber, Facebook, Google, Dropbox, Pinterest, AirBnB, Amazon, and many more. I’ve been reading predictions of a Web 2.0 bubble burst since… Continue reading Crying Wolf: Holding the Pundits and Media Accountable for Being Wrong about Snapchat and Web 2.0
Grey Notes: Protestantism and Holiness Spiraling
Protestantism is susceptible to holiness spiraling–you see this nowadays with the constant infighting in alt-right and white separatist movements, which are Protestant, in contrast to NRx, which is based on Catholicism and is more cohesive and unified. Notable historical examples of Protestant holiness spirals include the Salem witch trials, the Protestant Reformation and Bildersturm in… Continue reading Grey Notes: Protestantism and Holiness Spiraling
There is No Such Thing as the ‘Intellectual Left’
Contrary to the left’s self-ordained status as exemplars of intellectualism, individualism, and ‘free thought’, there is actually more intellectual and ideological conformity among the the ‘left’, versus the ‘right’. From Identity, IQ, and Incoherence of the Alt-Right: This incoherence is due to three factors: the ‘right’ generally being smarter and less conformist than the ‘left’… Continue reading There is No Such Thing as the ‘Intellectual Left’
Snapchat goes public: another correct prediction
Back in June 2014 I predicted that Uber would be worth $50 billion and Snapchat, then valued at $13 billion, would be worth $30 billion. Today Snapchat stock began trading and the market cap is is around $28 billion, just $2 billion shy of my prediction. In 2014 it seemed inconceivable Snapchat would be so… Continue reading Snapchat goes public: another correct prediction
Trump’s State of the Union Speech – Analysis
Elites can sleep easy following Trump’s State of Union Speech, which was applesauce, in which which Trump softened-up on immigration and promised significantly more spending. From the speech: America has spent approximately six trillion dollars in the Middle East, all this while our infrastructure at home is crumbling. With this six trillion dollars we could… Continue reading Trump’s State of the Union Speech – Analysis