Stocks rally to new historic highs on the Hobby Lobby victory and a poll that says Obama worst president since WWII. Midterm losses for the dems is bullish for the economy, so stocks are rallying in anticipation of the republicans controlling the senate and picking up more seats in the house. The GOP has always been the party of big ideas. But there are other reasons for the rally, such as the economy still being fundamentally sound, modest valuations, and endless liquidity from the fed, foreigners, and institutions. In this global wealth creation feeding frenzy, every asset is being inflated, from stocks and municipal bonds, to treasuries, Bay Area real estate, web 2.0 valuations, and collectibles.
If you’re a wealth spreading liberal watching all of this from the sidelines, you’re mouth must be foaming in a state livid rage, for there is nothing you can do to stop the unending prosperity. As much as they – the libs – rage against Wall St. and the fed and rail about inequality being too high and not enough jobs, stocks just keep going up.
From supply side economics to monetarism, The GOP has always been the party of innovation. The left, on the other hand, wants to cling to the past by opposing technology, financial instruments, automation, and creative destruction.
This is social Darwinism in action. The losers of today’s economy, including the long-term unemployed and those lacking in IQ points, are falling between the cracks and forgotten, as the cognitive elite are rewarded for their economic contributions with rising capital in the form of equity and real estate. If you’re among the top 1% of IQ and wealth, the economy is working for you. This is your era, your epoch. And it will be that way for a long time, perhaps forever. It’s not a bubble. This time is really different. This is the rapture of the nerds as some call it. A smartist era of so much wealth being created that it will blow your mind. From Silicon Valley to Manhattan – Web 2.0 founders, VCs, investors, and speculators are living it up, slapping each other on the backs and high-fiving each other, partying and congregating in insular enclaves of opulence with a blithe indifference to the rest of world.
You got Russia, Iraq, and all this stuff going on and to the cognitive elite – The Creators of The New Era – it’s not a big deal. But they are right to tune it out, because it’s really not a big deal – it’s just ambient noise, like background radiation from the Big Bang or the droning hum of an air conditioner. All these headlines filled with minutia are designed to distract you, make you fearful, make you sell your stocks too soon, and consume your energy and attention from more productive and enjoyable activities. Putin blows his nose and it’s all over the web presented as a big deal that needs your urgent attention.
These web 2.0 valuations refuse to ever go lower. Even a decade ago you saw companies like Myspace become worthless, but excluding IPOs, not a single major web 2.0 company has lost value. They just keep going up until either IPO or buyout. I’m going to throw some projected valuation numbers for the hottest web 2.0/app start-ups. I did no traditional financial analysis, whatsoever. These numbers are based on the hype, market share, and general asset inflation in the context of huge bull market.
Snapchat: $30 billion by 2015, $100+ billion if IPO
AirBNB: $50 billion at buyout or IPO
Uber: $100 billion within the next 2 years
Pinterest: $10 billion within 2 years
Tinder: $10 billion by 2015
These valuations may seem absurd, but I guarantee they will all be realized. If not, I will donate 1 Bitcoin ~$650 to charity.
Other 2015 targets (for stocks):
Facebook: $100; Google: $1000; Amazon: $500; Zillow: $250; Mastercard: $110; Jonhnson & Johnson: $120
Oil: $120, Gas: $5.5/gallon. Massive pain at the pump but won’t hurt the economy at all, as much as the left insists, to no avail, that it will. Expect the usual liberals blaming speculators, useless congressional hearings, corny editorial cartoon about gas prices, the usual impractical and far-fetched plans for energy independence and pipelines drawn-up by republicans and libertarians.
Dow: 18,000
Bay Area real estate will keep going up.
Labor participation as a proportion of the population will remain below 60%. Sometimes, it’s funny reading stories about student loan debt or college graduates being unable to find good jobs and thinking, ‘thank god that’s not me’ lol.
The lib’s shrill cries for crisis and wealth spreading ignored as stocks, web 2.0 valuations, Bay Area real estate, and profits keep going up with no end in sight.