Right now the big story is Trump’s Supreme Court appointment. Supreme Court appointments are supposed to last a lifetime, but positions have changed hands far more frequently than one would intuitively expect. Since 2005, Stephen Breyer, Samuel Alito, Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Neil Gorsuch have acceded the position, and now there will be a 6th change, out of a total of nine Justices, which is unprecedented in such a short period. My prediction is, abortion rights will not be overturned, and nothing will likely change, which is a safe and mostly likely outcome. Trump, being sorta of a pro-choice guy himself, knows trying to impose such limitations is bad for moderates and the women’s vote.
With the exception of the Supreme Court appointment, the news cycle seems pretty moribund. There’s definitely stuff going on, but it falls under the quadrant of predictable and ongoing. One would think with Trump as president, there would be more excitement and suspense, but now he’s tweeting about breastfeeding and formula, of all topics. As a male, I don’t give a flip about those things.
The failing NY Times Fake News story today about breast feeding must be called out. The U.S. strongly supports breast feeding but we don’t believe women should be denied access to formula. Many women need this option because of malnutrition and poverty.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 9, 2018
A boring but prosperous presidency and and economy is better than crisis and upheaval, as we saw in 2001 (911), 2003 (Iraq) and 2008 (financial crisis). Given how strong the economy and stock market is, as well as overall geopolitical stability, Trump’s reelection odds are the highest they have ever been–I would put them at 60% by now, up from 50% a year ago. I agree emphatically with Scott Adams that civil unrest is very unlikely. Trump could spend the rest of his term playing golf and it would not change those things…given the auto-pilot/autonomous nature of society and the economy, he doesn’t need to do much. Yet, some such as Ann Coulter wish he would do more. Trump is doing a good job being president, but perhaps not as well doing. But in the absence of any sort of crisis, being takes priority over doing. As I said before, part of the problem is a lack of focus. Trump switches from issues/targets erratically, without the follow-through necessary to instantiate his threats, such as Amazon vs. USPS, Harley Davidson, drug prices being too high, Hillary & DOJ, North Korea, etc.