Trump Presidency: Sober Expectations

Trump’s inauguration speech was very ambitious….if he accomplishes just 10% of it (and assuming there are no negative economic consequences), his presidency will be a success. Of course, it’s very hard to predict how history will judge Trump, but I’m predicting he will surpass expectations, meaning that he’ll be a better president than many in the media and the right-wing ‘establishment’ are predicting. I am highly confident the eight years of foreign peace, stock market gains, and American economic growth and stability under Obama (not that I am giving Obama credit for it; had Bush been given two more terms, the post-2008 recovery would likely been even stronger) will continue under Trump. Given Trump’s inexperience, this will work to his favor, because all he has to do is not screw it up. Voters who are expecting deescalation in the Middle East and sweeping economic and immigration reform will likely be disappointed. The Trump presidency will prove to be surprisingly uneventful. Yeah, unless there is some sort of cataclysmic event (such as another 911), for the next four years, all the global economic and social trends that were in place before Trump acceded office will remain so. As Scott noted, Trump’s efforts to create and save American jobs my be more symbolic than permanent and sweeping. But that’s still better than nothing. Trump’s legacy is being a catalyst for increased populism around the world, but making a big difference in terms of policy will be much more insurmountable.

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