Trump has momentum. The question is, will he follow through or drop-out as he as done every time before.
IMHO, Trump is an establishment candidate pretending to be anti-establishment. It’s possible he is helping Jeb by making the ‘establishment’ seem more electable by comparison. People assume his one comment about immigration makes him a rebel, but it’s probably marketing and hype. His campaign is like the Apprentice, but on a grander scale. His strategy is making attention seeking remarks for publicity to boost his brand. Like how Coca Cola constantly advertises to remind people it exists, Trump does the same. I don’t begrudge that as a business matter, but let’s not pretend he’s a serious candidate or that he has much of a chance. Mitt Romney in 2012, by contrast, was a serious candidate.
In the extremely unlikely event Trump becomes president, he will probably continue the Bush doctrine, leaving the anti-establishment Republicans who voted for him disappointed. He has also flipped-flopped on several issues such as drug legalization, eminant domain, and abortion. He’s also very litigious. But flip-flopping has become so commonplace in politics though. Nowadays among some Republicans, unlike as recently as a decade ago, being for drug decriminalization is ‘cool’, supporting controlled legalization of marijuana and shorter sentencing for drug offenders. The GOP definitely seems to be moving to the left on social issues.
AXA Financial Center 1290 Avenue of the Americas, New York City and 555 California Street, in San Francisco: When Trump was forced to sell a stake in the railyards on Manhattan’s West Side, the Asian group to which he sold then sold much of the site for $1.76 billion. Trump ended up owning 30% of the two buildings. Based on the sales price, Trump’s stake was valued at $486 million.
That alone is worth half a billion dollars. If Trump were to sell his entire holding company at once, including unconditional rights to the name ‘Trump’, he would probably get more than the sum of the parts. The question is, if Trump the brand were a public company, what outlook would investors give? If people stop caring about Trump, obviously the value would fall, so this is probably why publicity is so important. His whole business model is taking ordinary stuff and slapping his name on it; it’s not like most businesses, which have patents and tangible products.
There is a still a long way to go. As I said before, it comes down to the primaries. Everyone is in a frenzy, like the election is tomorrow. If Trump does badly in Iowa and New Hampshire, he will probably dropout, as candidates who do badly early on tend to do. It will be interesting to see what happens next.