I saw this Freddie deBoer article going viral: If Everyone Learns to Code, the Value of Knowing How to Code Will Be Destroyed. I knew that by writing about computer science and econ he was going into unchartered territory, compared to education policy or politics, and it shows. The inevitable impact will be a tougher… Continue reading Freddie deBoer is wrong about STEM jobs

One thing that stands out, to me at least, when listening to podcasts or popular YouTube channels, whether it’s Jocko, Rogan, Breaking Points, etc. is that the hosts are not particularly smart. They are competent perhaps at their professions, yes, but not that smart. I have observed this for almost all niches (e.g., business, finance,… Continue reading The IQ cliff and the lottery of success: Substack vs. YouTube

I saw this post going massively viral a few days ago: Nobody Wants to Teach Anymore: Everyone should know why. This article is entirely devoid of any stats…as I was reading I was waiting for the author to cite some actual data showing how underpaid teachers are, and nothing. It is just a huge rant.… Continue reading Teachers are likely not underpaid, and do not have it worse than other professions

Two weeks ago (and earlier) I said that as the stock market recovers, Bitcoin & Arkk will lag Tesla and 3x tech ETFs TECL and TQQQ considerably. So far it’s playing out exactly as I said it would. Bitcoin crashed 8% on Friday despite the Nasdaq only being down 2%. Arkk and Bitcoin are lagging… Continue reading Bitcoin vs. 3x Funds (the winner is 3x funds), Predictions, AI Risk, and Rationality

My IQ piece: exams do not measure knowledge and abilities v. well; exams are extremely good at measuring the ability to take exams. But avoid the denying the antecedent fallacy: being good at exams doesn't mean you aren't good at being Fat Tony. Best test: are you rich at 35? https://t.co/wRWDVt2oAu — Nassim Nicholas Taleb… Continue reading Nassim Taleb keeps being wrong about IQ

Saw this The Lumpenbourgeoisie: The price we pay for elite overproduction. His argument is that elite overproduction means that college grads with useless/unmarketable degrees are increasingly finding themselves unemployed, hence possibly precipitating the long-awaited collapse of the student loan/higher-ed bubble. He writes: But that reality is, on the one hand, more complicated than it appears,… Continue reading Elite overproduction does not threaten college advantage

Digital content creators, whether it’s YouTube, Podcasts, Substack, or Twitter, are making record money with ads, product placement, consulting, and subscriptions, and this trend has accelerated after Covid, as individuals and companies find themselves with an abundance of free time, profits, and disposable income. From a 2021 Fortune article, “…last year, YouTube’s ad revenue grew… Continue reading The booming digital content creator economy

I saw this Freddie deBoer article My Brief Brief Against Utilitarianism This is a pretty bad article, which is unfortunate because most of his articles are good. It’s like he didn’t even bother to try to entertain the pro-utilitarianism view beyond either stawmans or dismissing it outright. His argument is effectively a reductio to absurdum,… Continue reading Bad Argument Against Utilitarianism

Regarding the Trump situation, my prediction is he will not be arrested, for several reasons: 1. It will set a precedent that neither side wants to embark on. It’s sometimes believed that Clinton’s impeachment was in retaliation for Nixon’s impeachment. And Trump being impeached was in retaliation for that. So this leaves the left open… Continue reading Why Trump Will Not Be Arrested

Biden and Trump have among the lowest approval ratings of recent presidents, or at least as far back as records exist for this sort of thing. Biden’s approval ratings are around 40%, which is comparable to Trump at a similar stage of the latter’s presidency: So, that’s two consecutive presidents who have persistently sub-40% approval… Continue reading The Decline of Leadership in America