Regarding the Trump situation, my prediction is he will not be arrested, for several reasons: 1. It will set a precedent that neither side wants to embark on. It’s sometimes believed that Clinton’s impeachment was in retaliation for Nixon’s impeachment. And Trump being impeached was in retaliation for that. So this leaves the left open… Continue reading Why Trump Will Not Be Arrested

Biden and Trump have among the lowest approval ratings of recent presidents, or at least as far back as records exist for this sort of thing. Biden’s approval ratings are around 40%, which is comparable to Trump at a similar stage of the latter’s presidency: So, that’s two consecutive presidents who have persistently sub-40% approval… Continue reading The Decline of Leadership in America

I was going to write a post yesterday about the FBI raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, but it does not look as bad as the media hype made it seem yesterday. From the NYTs: F.B.I. Searches Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Residence in Florida (Obligatory archive.ph link) The search, according to multiple people familiar with the investigation, appeared… Continue reading FBI raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate

In the post GameStop stock rally proves media wrong, again, 2021, I wrote “The GameStop gains are going to hold and it will keep going up.” Today it’s only down 50% from its 2021 highs , which is less than Bitcoin (down 66%). It’s up 11% today, and also the gains have held contrary to… Continue reading Another huge day for GameStop

Inflation is often framed by the media, pundits, and politicians as a sort of tax. Compared to nominal returns, your ‘real’ returns are how much money you have after taking into account this deduction or debit due to inflation. I think however, this framing is to some degree wrong or incomplete. It’s not really a… Continue reading Is Inflation like a tax? It depends.

– Fogel, who is in his 60s, had around 17g (0.6oz) of cannabis in his luggage when he was caught on 15 August 2021 at Sheremetyevo airport, he told lawyers. 0 attention to this story tho. https://t.co/wDDK6dAOGP — Cernovich (@Cernovich) August 5, 2022 Because no one in the US has ever been sentenced for decades… Continue reading Russia’s Drug Laws are Comparable to the US

Credible sources are still entertaining the possibility of societal or economic collapse of the US. People are obsessed with this topic. Maybe they see collapse as an opportunity to break from the monotony of consumer capitalism, or they are bored, or something to do with ‘bullshit jobs’, which seems to come up in every discussion… Continue reading The Case Against Collapse

I saw this Mega Millions ticket wins $1.34B lottery jackpot Why it matters: The jackpot rolled 29 times since April and if no one won Friday’s drawing lottery officials said the prize had the potential to grow to $1.7 billion for Tuesday’s drawing, which would have been the nation’s largest lottery prize. These lotteries have… Continue reading Lotteries and the Age of Extreme Payouts

It’s time to review the scorecard. I looks like I was correct on everything, except for Facebook, which is still below $160/share on weak earnings. Correct: Amazon stock surged 10% on earnings, on its way to being worth $10 trillion soon. Bezos will be the world’s second trillionaire after Musk, and Amazon stock will go… Continue reading Mid-Year Predictions Scorecard