Greg Mankiw on the failure of SVB: I am not particularly concerned about the moral hazard associated with insuring all bank deposits (though the expansion of deposit insurance should be done explicitly, rather than through the implicit and ad hoc process now occurring). It is not realistic to expect bank depositors to monitor the health… Continue reading SVB , moral hazard, and risk, part 2

I saw this viral article by Arnold Kling, Moral Hazard is widely misunderstood. He argues that bailouts allow bankers to be reckless with impunity (heads they win, tails you lose, so to speak): At this point, if I obtain some more funds from depositors , I can go to Las Vegas and hope I get… Continue reading SVB failure: the limitations of moral hazard, and the difficulty of assessing risk

Tyler Cowen on crypto: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Crypto is a “luxury,” long-term financial intermediation project which may or may not succeed. It comoves with the market, stability, low interest rates, and long time horizons. It is not a potential substitute for fiat currency. He’s right: It’s not a substitute… Continue reading Crypto getting ready to dump, again

I saw this article going viral Why are young liberals so depressed? The CDC survey doesn’t ask teens about their political beliefs, but Gimbrone et. al. find not only divergence by gender, but divergence by political ideology. Breaking things down by gender and ideology, they find that liberal girls have the highest increase in depressive… Continue reading Depression and other societal problems are hardly exclusive to ‘the left’

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the ensuing contagion is the biggest story now. A few days ago I said this is worse than 2008. It seems I was right: 1. The suddenness of the 2023 crisis exceeds the 2008 global financial crisis. It hasn’t been a week, and already two major banks, Signature… Continue reading Silicon Valley Bank Failure , Contagion, and Aftermath: More Thoughts

The ‘iron law’ of bad advice keeps being true (more social media followers = worse advice): pic.twitter.com/tTMWOHcUom — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 11, 2023 So how has Bitcoin fared following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? Down 10%. Not just Bitcoin that is tanking, so are many ‘stable coins’ like USDC, which have exposure… Continue reading Why the failure of SVB is possibly worse than 2008

Silvergate is the latest domino to fall, down 30% today after announcing a liquidation plan, on top of the 50% decline last week. And “Silicon Valley Bank” fell 70%. (Apparently Silicon Valley has its own bank…who knew.) The whole crypto economy is collapsing. There is nothing that isn’t either a fraud and or insolvent. I… Continue reading The crypto collapse, continued: is there anything that isn’t a fraud or insolvent?

From Noah Smith Why do education, health care, and child care cost so much in America? It is taken as a truism by pundit and media types that Americans vastly overpay for healthcare and higher education. I have never found this to be totally convincing. Sure, the sticker price is high for such services, which… Continue reading Putting high tuition and education costs into perspective: why things are not as bad as they seem

Freddie deDoer and Rob K. Henderson weigh in on Columbia dropping the SATs. Columbia says they are not factoring SATs in admissions, but applicants are allowed to submit scores anyway. It will be interesting to see how much of a difference this makes: will summitting scores help even if it’s not a factor? If so,… Continue reading Columbia Dropping the SAT/ACT

Last week Silvergate Capital, a bank that is involved with crypto lending, plunged 60% on fears of defaulting. Bitcoin fell 5% in sympathy on the news, compared to the Nasdaq which was up 2% that Friday. My prediction of Bitcoin going back to $17k and or lagging the Nasdaq is coming true, as I said… Continue reading The collapse of crypto shows the limitations of expertise and track records