Bitcoin keeps falling like I said it would, having dropped below $27k, on its way to $20k and lower: This proves yet again that Bitcoin is useless as a hedge against crisis, this time crisis in the Middle East. In September the SEC put all Bitcoin ETF approvals on hold until 2024, again like I… Continue reading The daily view 10/10/2023: Bitcoin Falls, and Crisis in the Middle East

Similar to how Renaissance Technologies pioneered quant trading and made a lot of money by going against conventional wisdom, that being the dominance of ‘buy and hold’ investing, so did I. The majority of people who short Bitcoin lose money, and one would assume that a Bitcoin shorting strategy would fail spectacularly when Bitcoin is… Continue reading The One-Man Renaissance Technologies, and why shorting Bitcoin is easier than shorting stocks

From Taleb The problem with pple like SBF is knowing a tiny bit of statistics to parrot abt it, but not understanding processes (that is, dynamics across time).Shakespeare has survived nearly half a millennium of filtering by time. To Jane Street: He would have flunked my job interview. https://t.co/igQqqf9nPB — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) October… Continue reading Shakespeare , SBF and Survival

I saw this going viral: Walmart says users of weight loss drugs are buying less food, and a related Elon tweet: Amazing that Ozempic is actually affecting @Walmart food sales! While no drug is without side effects, health problems associated with obesity almost certainly exceed the risks of GLP-1 agonists. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October… Continue reading Does Mounjaro and Ozempic threaten food sales? unlikely

Freddie deBoer discusses how the debate about college makes unrealistic assumptions as to the viability of alternatives to college. This is why despite Freddie being a Marxist, I still follow him. I disagree with him politically, but he still talks sense on many things. I would rather follow someone who talks sense on many things… Continue reading It’s Time To Be Realistic About College Alternatives

Last week I made a post speculating on Elon’s IQ, who despite being the richest person in the world it may come as news to some he is not the smartest too. I think there is a systemic bias in society in which people equate wealth with intelligence, or overestimate the IQs of rich people.… Continue reading The disconnect between the perceived vs. actual rarity of high-net-worth individuals vs high-IQ individuals

I saw this going viral They Studied Dishonesty. Was Their Work a Lie? regarding Dan Ariely and Francesca Gino, whose research into dishonesty may have, well, been a lie. Whenever someone is busted for deception or dishonesty, whether it’s steroids in baseball, steroids in the WWE/WWF, academic dishonesty or malfeasance, or YouTube fitness gurus taking… Continue reading Much of social sciences research is probably garbage/wrong

From The Honest broker : AI Is Defeated in Hollywood—But What About Music? Mr. Gioia writes the same ‘AI vs. the entertainment industry’ article every 2 weeks or so. I am more of an AI agnostic than either an ‘AI utopian’ or an ‘AI doomer’. I don’t think AI will prove to be nearly as… Continue reading Why AI may not be as big of a productivity boost as assumed

I saw this going viral : Baby boomers are becoming homeless at a rate ‘not seen since the Great Depression’ — here’s what’s driving this terrible trend. And from WSJ: Why More Baby Boomers Are Sliding Into Homelessness. Let me get out my little violin. But in all seriousness, this agrees with my earlier post… Continue reading The Myth of Wealthy Boomers (why they are not much ‘better off’ compared to later generations)

Scott reviews comments in regard to Elon Musk’s latest biography. Not surprisingly, a lot of the discussion focusses on Elon’s IQ. For some reason many people, including those who otherwise believe strongly in HBD, get irked at the notion that Elon may not in fact be the smartest person in the world, or as smart… Continue reading How Smart is Elon Musk?