Since we’re on the topic of IQ again, from Tracing Wood: chess plays an important role in keeping the rest of us honest Ethan Pang has been playing for four years. he is better at the game than you will ever be. if you quit your job and studied chess full-time for four years, you… Continue reading Child chess prodigies are likely high-IQ prodigies

There are three certainties in life: Death, taxes, and Bitcoin falling. Bitcoin continues to crash as predicted, breaching $57k on its eventful trajectory to $20k or lower. The divergence between Bitcoin and leveraged tech ETFs keeps widening, as predicted also: Earlier this year it looked like I was wrong, but then Bitcoin inexplicably collapsed as… Continue reading Bitcoin keeps falling as stocks keep going up

Every indicator points to the rise of a post-work, post-scarcity economy, such as forecasts of ‘hundreds of millions of jobs’ lost to AI, or discussions of 4-day workweeks, which have being tentatively tried with success. Famously workaholic Japan is pushing for 4-day workweeks due to labor shortages. Or some cities implementing small-scale UBI programs. Open… Continue reading The end of work, and the new post-scarcity

A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook… Continue reading Consider Specialization: The Benefits (and drawbacks) of Specialization

Spoke to a boomer relative. He said ‘yeah Biden was weak at first, but he got a lot better….’ Useful reminder that even if we see a disaster, there are people out there who didn’t, or just didn’t want to. Apparently older whites like Biden, and it’s going to be tough to move… — FischerKing… Continue reading Debate Disaster

During the Biden-Trump debate (or more accurately, the DNC’s crisis moment), many people assumed or predicted Biden’s loss would be good for crypto, but as Bitcoin falls again this Friday–as it always does–those hopes evaporated yet again. Bitcoin is looking as frail as Biden was on the stage last night. Bitcoin is already $7k lower… Continue reading Bitcoin, the dems, and Biden are today’s big losers as always. Tech stocks always win.

Interesting tweet storm by “Haunted Clockwork Emergency Mouse” re-tweeted by Eliezer Yudkowsky, who has a lot of interest in dieting in addition to the typical Ai stuff: The evidence for this is the large number of skinny guys (who often view themselves as being conscientious about their diet and exercise) failing just as spectacularly at… Continue reading Hard to Gain Weight? Maybe if You’re Young

Election years are bullish for stocks, with few exceptions like 2008: If Trump wins–which the evidence suggests he will given Biden’s sub-40% approval rating, which is unusually bad for a Democratic incumbent–expect tons of stimulus, even more tax cuts, and deregulation. All of this is good for stocks. In 2016 stocks surged immediately after Trump… Continue reading Election Years are Bullish for Stocks, Wall St. Optimistic About Trump Win

Will Debt Sink the American Empire? After growing for decades, this year the U.S. debt will roughly match its GDP. Throughout history, nations that blithely piled up their obligations have eventually met unhappy ends. To answer the title, it will not. Every year the debt doomsayers sound the same warnings about the ‘inevitable’ or awaited… Continue reading There won’t be a debt crisis. Things will continue as always.

This week is Juneteenth. The creation of these ad-hoc holidays is part of the transition to a post-scarcity or post-work society. As AI becomes increasingly advanced, increased joblessness should lead to the creation of additional such holidays. How The Economist’s presidential forecast works 2024 is going to be very close and decided by key swing… Continue reading The daily view 6/21/2024 Presidential Debate, Presidential Forecasting, Race Realism