The decline of Cold-War era ‘genius collectives’, and the rise of human capital

I saw this article going viral, about the rise and fall of Bell Labs: What would it take to recreate Bell Labs? The Cold War era saw the rise of ‘genius collectives’–large institutions which employed a lot of smart people for research and development purposes. This included such organizations as the RAND corporation, Bell Labs,… Continue reading The decline of Cold-War era ‘genius collectives’, and the rise of human capital

The Daily View 7/17/2024: Trump assassination attempt analysis, and more

Item 1: Tech stocks fall a lot on Trump comments . It’s interesting how there are now effectively two presidents: Biden, president de jure, and Trump, the de facto and presumed future president given Biden’s recent spiraling decline. So this means Trump’s comments carry the same weight as if he was president. This works to… Continue reading The Daily View 7/17/2024: Trump assassination attempt analysis, and more

Trump selects J.D. Vance as VP

This was a good, solid VP choice. Vance is qualified and smart, two attributes you want in a VP, as Trump’s advanced age (and now the threat of being assassinated) makes his choice more important than typical of the VP selection process. People are wondering what the implications of his choice are. There will not… Continue reading Trump selects J.D. Vance as VP

“…inches from Civil War”

A few inches and Trump not momentarily turning his head to look away from the teleprompter, and history would have been forever changed. Audience members closest to the stage, perhaps distracted by their smartphones as the rally was starting, would have felt a mist and a sprinkle of fragments and looked up to the sound… Continue reading “…inches from Civil War”

Why Most Financial Analysis is Useless and can be Ignored

Every day, investors are bombarded by forecasts and predictions by people who are held up as experts or who lay claim to expertise. This can include economists, CEOs, or analysts who work for major publicly-traded investment banks or smaller private firms, whose forecasts are disseminated by the financial media. It’s the only profession, AFIK, where… Continue reading Why Most Financial Analysis is Useless and can be Ignored

A second Trump term: expect the economy to boom, and other predictions

Given the ongoing decline of the credibility of the Biden administration and post-debate implosion of his campaign, a second Trump term must be seriously entertained. Here is what I predict will happen: Similar to 2016-2020, Trump will not do much legislatively, save for tax cuts, which are an easy legislative win if the Republicans can… Continue reading A second Trump term: expect the economy to boom, and other predictions

Governments Continue to Dump Bitcoin as Price Crashes , Bitcoin Lags Tech Stocks

AFIK, I was the first, in late 2021, to argue that leveraged tech is superior to Bitcoin and “this decade’s Bitcoin“, and that Bitcoin would severely lag tech stocks, while at the same time track the stock market on the downside. Fast-forward to 2024 and Bitcoin is dying as tech stocks surge, as I said… Continue reading Governments Continue to Dump Bitcoin as Price Crashes , Bitcoin Lags Tech Stocks