I saw this article going viral, about the rise and fall of Bell Labs: What would it take to recreate Bell Labs? The Cold War era saw the rise of ‘genius collectives’–large institutions which employed a lot of smart people for research and development purposes. This included such organizations as the RAND corporation, Bell Labs,… Continue reading The decline of Cold-War era ‘genius collectives’, and the rise of human capital

Item 1: Tech stocks fall a lot on Trump comments . It’s interesting how there are now effectively two presidents: Biden, president de jure, and Trump, the de facto and presumed future president given Biden’s recent spiraling decline. So this means Trump’s comments carry the same weight as if he was president. This works to… Continue reading The Daily View 7/17/2024: Trump assassination attempt analysis, and more

This was a good, solid VP choice. Vance is qualified and smart, two attributes you want in a VP, as Trump’s advanced age (and now the threat of being assassinated) makes his choice more important than typical of the VP selection process. People are wondering what the implications of his choice are. There will not… Continue reading Trump selects J.D. Vance as VP

A few inches and Trump not momentarily turning his head to look away from the teleprompter, and history would have been forever changed. Audience members closest to the stage, perhaps distracted by their smartphones as the rally was starting, would have felt a mist and a sprinkle of fragments and looked up to the sound… Continue reading “…inches from Civil War”

Every day, investors are bombarded by forecasts and predictions by people who are held up as experts or who lay claim to expertise. This can include economists, CEOs, or analysts who work for major publicly-traded investment banks or smaller private firms, whose forecasts are disseminated by the financial media. It’s the only profession, AFIK, where… Continue reading Why Most Financial Analysis is Useless and can be Ignored

This segues to a debate about Elon Musk’s IQ , in which some took issue with my claim that although his IQ is likely nominally high, he’s not among the smartest people in the world, a position likely occupied by top pure mathematicians and theoretical physicists. People are apt to overestimate Elon Musk’s IQ owing… Continue reading Competence is not the same as IQ

I saw this article going massively viral, by Tracing Woodgrains: Reliable Sources: How Wikipedia Admin David Gerard Launders His Grudges Into the Public Record. There are two issues here: 1. The problem is not so much that Wikipedia is biased or has corrupt editors (this has been known for a very long time, and has… Continue reading Wikipedia’s Problem is its Popularity

Given the ongoing decline of the credibility of the Biden administration and post-debate implosion of his campaign, a second Trump term must be seriously entertained. Here is what I predict will happen: Similar to 2016-2020, Trump will not do much legislatively, save for tax cuts, which are an easy legislative win if the Republicans can… Continue reading A second Trump term: expect the economy to boom, and other predictions

AFIK, I was the first, in late 2021, to argue that leveraged tech is superior to Bitcoin and “this decade’s Bitcoin“, and that Bitcoin would severely lag tech stocks, while at the same time track the stock market on the downside. Fast-forward to 2024 and Bitcoin is dying as tech stocks surge, as I said… Continue reading Governments Continue to Dump Bitcoin as Price Crashes , Bitcoin Lags Tech Stocks

Interesting article: How Did Silicon Valley Turn into a Creepy Cult? I should have noticed when tech leaders started talking about attaining immortality and resettling on Mars. It’s easy to ignore crackpots like that, or pity them—because they live in delusion and still end up dead here on planet Earth. They talk a lot about… Continue reading How Did Silicon Valley Turn into a Creepy Cult?