Facebook stock is surging higher on yet another quarter of huge earnings: Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak believes ad sales will only grow bigger with Instagram’s promise as an e-commerce tool. In raising his price target on Facebook shares to $195 from $190 on April 9, Nowak estimates Instagram could add $4 billion in incremental… Continue reading More correct tech & stock predictions

The liberal media is celebrating Trump’s polls “falling five points” after the Mueller report, but as shown below, you literally have two contradicting headlines within a day of each other. Which one is correct? According to 538, which is probably the most reliable meta-poll, Trump’s approval rating fell from 42.3 to 41.3, which is insignificant.… Continue reading Trump approval rating holds steady

Every day, there are headlines and predictions about how “college is a bubble,” or about the “trillions of dollars of student loan debt,” or how the “student loan bubble must burst,” and yet, as the years pass, tuition and debt keeps going up, and the people who keep predicting bubble and crisis must revise their… Continue reading Why the student loan and college ‘bubble’ won’t be bursting anytime soon

Vox Day is at it again: Jordan Peterson humiliates himself. Um…except that: No one really cares what The Guardian, which is a second-rate British newspaper, says; not Dr. Peterson’s fans, nor Zizek’s fans. The New York Times or the WSJ carries weight; The Guardian doesn’t, especially not an opinion column written by some no-name contributor.… Continue reading Jordan Peterson Zizek Debate

A few days ago I wrote about fake experts, who are taken seriously by the media despite having little to no credentials and having generally bad and or unoriginal ideas, but that does not mean actual credentialed experts are also immune from having bad ideas. An example of the latter is Peter Turchin, who despite… Continue reading Peter Turchin is (probably) wrong about crisis, again

I’m sure many have heard about a 2013 study that purports that people of the Victorian era were smarter than current-day people, which has gotten considerable media attention. Reaction times – a reliable marker of general intelligence – have declined steadily since the Victorian era from about 183 milliseconds to 250ms in men, and from… Continue reading Were the Victorians smarter? Probably not

On April 18th, the Report on the Investigation into Russian Interference in the 2016 Presidential Election, was released to Congress and the public, which, predictably, exonerated Trump from accusations of collusion with Russia. And yet again, I was right that it would be a nothing-burger. A no-brainer prediction, but I’ll take credit for it anyway.… Continue reading The Mueller Report, Part 2

Having a lot of money means erroneous, bad, or unoriginal opinions are taken seriously and take precedence over experts and ‘good’ opinions (at least by the media; academia is more discriminating). Predictions of AI risk are a dime a dozen, but when Elon Musk opines about it as he occasionally does such as in 2017… Continue reading Fake Experts

Scott’s epic article Increasingly Competitive College Admissions: Much More Than You Wanted To Know, went viral. At the end, this passage stood out: I became interested in this topic partly because there’s a widespread feeling, across the political spectrum, that everything is getting worse. I previously investigated one facet of this – that necessities are… Continue reading The Competence Bubble

Indeed, it’s not your imagination that America feels more partisan and divided than ever: it’s supported by polling data going back as far as Franklin Delano Roosevelt, which shows that Trump’s approval rating has hovered in the tightest range of any president, at around 38-45%. Similar to Obama, people’s minds were made up about Trump… Continue reading The ’90s and now, part 2