A few days ago I discussed how Trump’s prediction market impeachment odds are too high. I still stand by my prediction that Trump will not be impeached in his first term. But there are factors working against this: The dems may decide to try to impeach Trump anyway as a sort of symbolic gesture and… Continue reading Calculating Trump impeachment odds for prediction markets, part 2

Tesla stock surged 20% on yet another quarter of huge earnings and posting a surprise profit of $342 million (versus expected losses of $256.9 million). This just goes to show how media narratives are often wrong. Everyone for the past 2 years has been saying Tesla is dying due to losses and Elon Musk’s supposed… Continue reading Tesla’s huge quarter…right again

ECONOMY Ray Dalio says the world is in a ‘great sag’ and echoes the 1930s Hedge fund titan Ray Dalio believes it is too late for central banks to reverse a global slowdown.   Dalio is warning that current conditions remind him of the Depression-era environment.   He says the world is currently entering a… Continue reading Ray Dalio wrong about ‘great sag’

Predictit.org gives 73% odds of Trump being impeached by the end of his first term: And a whopping 46% chance by the end of 2019: Both these odds seem way too high, especially the second. The first contract implies that by taking the ‘no’ side of the bet you can quadruple your money after just… Continue reading Trump impeachment odds are way over-inflated

In America’s hyper-efficient, hyper-capitalistic, results-orientated economy and society that is increasingly dominated by capital and wealth, individual opinions matter less and less. Moralizing is on the way out. No one cares what you think about things. That is not to say that there isn’t a distinction between right and wrong or that morality doesn’t exist–there… Continue reading Post-opinion era

I found this passage (for some reason I am unable to find the original link to his blog) attributed to Scott regarding dissent, to be interesting: Western society has been moving gradually further to the left for the past several hundred years at least. It went from divine right of kings to constutitional monarchy to… Continue reading What does it mean to be iconoclastic?

The S&P 500 keeps going up. Had you bought in early 2018, when Trump initiated his tariffs, you still would have still made 15% in spite of all the dire media pronouncements. The media and pundits are pushing this narrative that society is on the brink of economic and social collapse due to politics, Trump,… Continue reading Using the interest rate cycle to predict the market

On Saturday Trump announced yet another trade deal with China (for some reason these deals always happen on Saturday). But I thought I must have been hallucinating because I was sure that Trump announced such a deal at least a few weeks ago. No, my suspicions were correct. It seems Trump announces this same sort… Continue reading The trade deal merry-go-round

Low consumer inflation opens the door for Fed to cut interest rates further The consumer-price index was flat in September, the government said Thursday, marking the smallest change since January. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 0.1% advance.   The increase in the cost of living over the past 12 months was also unchanged… Continue reading But weren’t the tariffs supposed to be inflationary?

Bill Ram Z Paul Gates put out another video, this time calling out Trump for ‘de-platforming’ Michelle Malkin. This is in regard to Trump’s resort, Mar a Lago, which rescinded hosting an event by ACT, with Michelle Malkin who was scheduled to be the keynote speaker, after protestations by the ADL and the SPLC. Bill… Continue reading Dear dissent right, Trump is just not all that into you