Rationality is defined as “…the quality or state of being rational – that is, being based on or agreeable to reason. Rationality implies the conformity of one’s beliefs with one’s reasons to believe, and of one’s actions with one’s reasons for action…When the goal or problem involves making a decision, rationality factors in all information… Continue reading Thinking rationally: 3 examples

In the prior section, I calculated the volatility parameters for three major market index 3x ETFs: UPRO, UDOW, and TQQQ. In this section, I need to calculate a sample market cycle for the Nasdaq 100 index in order to estimate TQQQ returns. This is harder to do than compared to the the S&P 500, owing… Continue reading 3x Leveraged ETF Strategy Guide, Part 2b

See part one It took longer to complete this section than expected owning to the difficulty of modeling historic stock market returns. Market returns to some degree follow a normal distribution, but ,rather, markets are more characterized by regimes. This means there are long periods in which market does well, followed by long periods in… Continue reading 3x Leveraged ETF Strategy Guide, Updated for 2020, Part 2

The srticle Education and Men without Work Just skimming the comments, there is the withholding of judgment against young, able-bodied men who, for whatever reason, choose not to work. There is no puritanical moralizing about the ‘virtues of work’, or how ‘people should not be lazy,’ or how ‘one must choose between work or starvation/poverty’;… Continue reading Is a post-scarcity economy possible? It’s already happening

Incentives matter. Why is the Euro banknote the most commonly forged currency? Because it’s easy to forge? No, because the consequences are much more lenient compared to forging US bank notes. You forge US banknotes and the secret service will surround you; for euros and the Europol may do something, but likely won’t. It’s like:… Continue reading Incentives matter

Saw this article going viral There Is No Case for the Humanities Among the tech-smart, there is a sort of cognitive dissonance of both supporting technology in so far as promoting progress and well-being (such as reducing global starvation and infant mortality), but also nostalgia and respect for the “old ways of doing things.” Traditionalism… Continue reading Is there a case for the humanities?

I like to think that I am right most of the time, but I have to amend some of my earlier views of IQ as it pertains to success at life. In the past I put IQ above other factors, but now I think IQ is as important as family wealth and networking, not more… Continue reading Revising some views about IQ

The S&P 500 keeps making new highs. It can easily post another 20% gains for 2020. When I say that I am one of the greatest financial forecasters and stock pickers ever, it’s not hyperbole , but backed by data. For example, was right about Tesla and Facebook, but also MasterCard, Visa, Microsoft, Amazon, Uber,… Continue reading How I Understand Stocks and Economics

War or not, there is going to be more defense build-up as a consequence of Soleimani’s assassination, which is good for defense stocks. From a 2020 strategic standpoint, assassinating Soleimani works in Trump’s favor because it boosts patriotism and nationalism among his boomer/gen-x base. On dissent-right and chan sites, gen-z and millennial supporters may be… Continue reading Escalation against Iran good for Trump, stock market

A 2009 article from Seth Godin’s blog recently went viral, Ignore Sunk Costs. A sunk cost in the context of the sunk cost fallacy implies a certain amount of uncertainty of ever recovering the initial investment. Misspelling a sign is a mistake that needs to be fixed, not a sunk cost. For example, if a… Continue reading Getting Sunk Costs Wrong