An article from 2007 by Nassim Taleb recently came to my attention You Can’t Predict Who Will Change The World. Just going by the title of the article, he is wrong. Although anyone can change the world, by in large, it is high IQ people who tend to, through their innovations and creativity. If one… Continue reading Taleb is wrong about IQ and creativity

Things are still kinda slow lately but PredictIt is still giving Trump a 43% chance of being impeached by the end of 2019 and a 77% chance by the end of his first term, which, imho, are absurdly high probabilities. The impeachment inquiry, as I predicted over a month ago, is going to stall and… Continue reading Are prisons a “good deal?” Possibly

There has been a ton of controversy lately online regarding right-wing provocateur Nick Fuentes’ rebuttal of Ben Shapiro. Mr Fuentes is not wrong but i wish he hadn’t done this. All it will accomplish it will accomplish is make both sides dig their heels deeper and exacerbate the culture wars, without resolution of any sort… Continue reading Why debates are pointless

All over the internet, on high-IQ and ‘smart’ communities such as on Reddit, in particular, but also in ‘think pieces’ on Vox and other publications, there are are plethora of stories about college-educated millennials and gen-z being unable to find gainful employment and enter the privileged ranks of ‘middle class,’ but rather are unemployed or… Continue reading How much of the millennial and gen-z job crisis is self-inflicted?

Things have been pretty slow lately, especially on the blog-front. If there is one thing Trump has accomplished, he has sorta unleashed a collective writer’s block on the dozen or so blogs and websites I follow, which has gotten worse over the past year especially. The updates are becoming less frequents, for many niches, not… Continue reading Fuentes’ Groypers

The Quilette article Mediocrity for All! makes some good points about the diluting of America’s education system and lowering of standards In subsequent decades, it became clear that academic greatness is not what generous dollops of self-esteem promote. In 1963, the liminal margin of America’s national experiment in teaching self-love, there began an uninterrupted 18-year… Continue reading Mediocrity for all, and the necessity of realism-based education policy

From The Atlantic The Not-Com Bubble Is Popping I’m generally opposed to people getting fired for political views, but not for gross inaccuracies, incompetence, and poor reasoning, and in that case Derek Thompson of The Atlantic fits the bill. This is the latest howler in a long string of bad articles by said author and… Continue reading Derek Thompson’s terrible Atlantic article (there is no tech market crash)

  Last week the S&P 500 decisively broke above its 3030 resistance, as I correctly predicted multiple times this year that it would: Just another example of this blog being right, whether it’s about tariffs, the economy, Trump, trade wars, etc. Still predicting 13% annual returns for the market for the next 8 years. Will… Continue reading update: Trump and Stock Market

Spandrall put out this interesting post THOSE WHO SHOW UP about the risks posed by falling birthrates, and possible solutions and outcomes. That was 2013 though, and a lot has happened since. Most of it bad. Some good things too: Russia grew a spine, annexed Crimea and kicked USG out of Syria. China grew two… Continue reading The Population Crisis

Many pundits online, either on the dissident-left or the dissent-right, but also many centrists and moderates, too, predict increasing upheaval and societal change. They predict that Trump, the rise of populism and increasingly partisan politics, or the rejection of globalization, will change the status quo and fundamentally restructure society. Francis Fukuyama is frequently invoked, as… Continue reading Investing for the ‘Singularity’