Ignore the News, Part 2

Many participants, however, thought it unlikely that the data available in June would provide sufficient confirmation that the conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate had been satisfied, although they generally did not rule out this possibility.

This big story from Business Insider, as shown above, is that a fed rate hike in June is ‘off the table’, meaning that it’s not going to happen. No shit. There is not a single forecaster alive who actually thought rates were going to go up in June. Not a single one out of the thousands of people who study this stuff. So this big news story, according to the useless financial media, is that the fed reaffirmed what everyone expected. This is news for the sake of news, but is it front-page news? No. The big question is if the fed will raise rates in September or December. my opinion is that they won’t, but a rate hike is probably priced in if it does happen.

But the problem with the news ultimately boils down to:

Hyping the obvious (like in the example above)
Hyping things that aren’t a big deal (turning molehills into mountains) for ratings, clicks, ad views, etc
Front-running things that won’t happen or haven’t happened yet (the Black Swan that will never arrive)

If you eliminated all three of these things, the news could probably fit on a fortune cookie.

So the best thing average people can do is ignore the news and buy stocks on the dips. 99% of the time, what is supposed to be a bubble or a crisis according to the media – is just nothing. Anthrax, Ebola, SARS, Greece, Swine Flu, Russia, ‘Stocks/housing being too high’,inflation/deflation, fiscal cliff, sequester, debt ceiling…all of these, according to the media, were supposed to doom America and the economy, yet in retrospect were merely speed bumps and great buying opportunities for investors. If there is supposed to be a crisis, just assume high-IQ people will save the day in the last minute – they always do. Just assume America and its economy and stock market will reign supreme.

Related:

Ignore the News
Ignore the Doom and Gloom Media
The Media and Global Warming
Things that I am sick of people complaining about
Ignore the News and Keep Buying Stocks on the Dips

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