From Richard Fernandez Not a King, but the King of Beggars:
The narrative that Russia — a country with an economy smaller than Italy — smaller than New York State’s — will take over the world is less compelling than than the alternative thesis: that the tide of chaos is rising across the planet. With the European Union weakening, the Middle East perceptibly falling apart and African and Latin America their same old selves the danger is less that some rival empire will conquer the world than that power vacuums will spread entropy all over the planet.
Fernandez writes the same doom and gloom premonitions every month…it never changes with him. His observations are not new: the Middle East has been falling apart since Biblical times…Europe has been weak since Britain lost grip of its Empire after WW2, and Germany had its balls cut off after losing. The history of South America and Africa is one of despotism, corruption, and destitute.
Doom and gloom and wishful thinking are forms of activism, in contrast to realism. I choose the latter. As Fernandez beats the drums about the end of the world and this ‘new status quo’ that exists only in his mind, the rest of the world goes about its business and the existing status quo prevails. He says “power vacuums will spread entropy all over the planet” That’s not going to happen. The power vacuum from a weakening European Union and Russia is filled by a stronger China and America, which is already happening. Trump becoming president made America more powerful and relevant than it has ever been, in contrast to the pushover Obama who made America weak in the eyes of other nations. It’s been my thesis that if civilization goes down the drain, China and America will be the last to go, not the first. It comes down to leadership, demographics, IQ, economics, and other factors, in which America come out near the top.
Amazon stock is now at $870/share, a gain of 130% since 2014, making its CEO and founder Jeff Bezos the second richest person in the world. Facebook keeps making new high, too. So as far as Silicon Valley, Wall St. and the rest of the high-IQ enclaves of the world, times have never been more prosperous, and then on top of that you have the economies of America and China stronger and better than ever before, too. So I can listen to alarmists like Fernandez who keep predicting doom and gloom on deaf ears–or–I can hold my tech stocks and keep making money. The choice is obvious (for me at least). This also ties in with the HBD-as-destiny thesis: the idea being techno-commercialism will win, because it’s predestined to.
Social media and the 24-7 news cycle distorts our perception of reality by making events that are rare seem more common, as described in the post Why There Isn’t More Civil Unrest in America, and Why I’m Not Worried. If every single event of crisis and upheaval from all over the world is being broadcast before your eyes on Twitter and Facebook, it will seem like things are worse than they really are, whereas a generation ago most events went unreported.
Until or unless I start seeing actual, compelling signs of shit hitting the fan in America, I will not join the doomsayer chorus.