Category: Uncategorized

I think the epidemic of irreproducibility as it pertains to the social sciences and success stories is way bigger than imagined. The survivorship bias is huge. It’s like you’re presented with what you are told is a blueprint (e.g., ‘grit’, ‘10,000 hours’, ‘mindfulness’, ‘growth mindset’, etc.) for success, persuasiveness, or anything else socially desired. What… Continue reading Why Bad Social Science Research Endures

Last night Trump gave a major speech announcing his 2024 run. I am more convinced than ever he will win. At one point his speech was viewed by over 100,000 people concurrently across multiple YouTube channels. Biden cannot pull those kind of numbers. All Trump has to do to win is blame his opponent for… Continue reading Trump 2024

Gad Saad’s weight loss story shows why the obesity epidemic is possibly hopeless, or at least worse than I originally thought (from the Joe Rogan podcast): Although he succeeded at losing 86 pounds (at a peak and 256 pounds, and a present weight of 170 pounds), in order to achieve this he had to: 1.… Continue reading Why the obesity epidemic may not be solvable

Right again: FTX declared bankruptcy a day after I said it would. Its CEO Scam Blankman-Fried stepped down, to pursue new scams I suppose. Apparently his family also has close ties with Biden…go figure. This did not come as a surprise. Its business was unsalvageable and worthless, given that all its customers who hadn’t had… Continue reading FTX Bankruptcy

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are down 15-30% this week, vs the Nasdaq being up 3%. As far as predicting goes, this is right on the nose. You could not have asked for a more accurate forecast. The Nasdaq was up 7% today, it’s best one-day gain in over a decade, and the S&P 500 was… Continue reading Stocks Still Better Than Bitcoin, and Record-high Twitter Traffic Under Musk

As predicted two days ago, BTC is crashing, down 10% today and 10% yesterday. This is partly due to FTX exchange possibly being close to insolvency. I’m too lazy to update the above chart but it’s down another 1,000 point since I took the screenshot. Just as facts (still) don’t care about your feelings, I’m… Continue reading The Daily View: Bitcoin Crash, Financial Physics, and Interest Rates

Bitcoin is still getting ready to dump. Zooming in, you can see how the chart is choppy, which is the opposite of smooth, and preceded major price declines on multiple occasions, first at 30k, then 25k, and now at 21k: The above screenshot was made over the weekend. Sure enough, on Monday, Bitcoin is down… Continue reading Market Update: Ark and Bitcoin keep falling

If you don’t have a Substack blog, you are probably leaving money on the table. Right now I can think of a dozen people who I follow/read (not famous people) online who are not on Substack, but who could benefit. In terms of passive income with high upside potential should the blog be a success… Continue reading Money On The Table: Why Start a Substack Blog

I think Moldbug is overestimating the stakes or the power dynamics at play. Twitter belongs to Elon now. He can basically do what he likes, and there isn’t much the left can do but pound sand. I don’t think any of the above scenarios will transpire. The federal government is either unwilling or unable to… Continue reading The Regime’s Response to the Musk Threat (Why I’m Optimistic)

The media is blaming Musk for destroying twitter even though twitter was already a train wreck when he bought it. Racist tweets quickly surface after Musk closes Twitter deal An emboldened cast of anonymous trolls spewed racist slurs and Nazi memes onto Twitter in the hours after billionaire industrialist Elon Musk took over the social… Continue reading The Daily View 11/1/2022: Twitter, McDonald’s , the Metaverse , and Uber