Category: Uncategorized

There is a saying, “If you have to explain the joke, you already killed it,” or something to that effect. I think this describes recent, post-2021 society and discourse. We live in an era in which we’re constantly having to explain the joke, to avoid the repercussions of being misunderstood, either because the stakes have… Continue reading Explaining the joke

I have not been keeping up with the day-to-day developments and media coverage of the Trump and DeSantis campaigns. To call it a horserace is an understatement. Everyone on Twitter, on either the pro-Trump or pro-DeSantis side, is looking for the smallest of reasons or evidence for their unfavored candidate losing. Is DeSantis losing the… Continue reading Too early to speculate on 2024 election

In 2022/2023 I predicted ‘big tech’ (e.g. TECL, TQQQ, QQQ, etc.) is going to massively outperform Bitcoin as the stock market recovers: “…the prediction has a second part, which is that Bitcoin will lag 3x funds, TECL and TQQQ . So I can be wrong about the first and right about the second.” And also… Continue reading Bitcoin continues to lag QQQ/big tech, right again

A common argument is that rich people can buy their way to success. I have argued that commentators, on either side of the aisle, overestimate the importance or conversion rate of money into influence. Money is necessary for tangible things, such as houses and cars. It’s not so great for buying a legacy, intellectual credibility,… Continue reading How to blow $1 million (when cryptocurrency meets hubris)

From Less Wrong, The Case Against Education: Splitting the Education Premium Pie and Considering IQ. In the aforementioned link, Caplan argues that IQ tests are a cheaper alterative to diplomas. Zvi counters that such tests are legally impermissible or too risky for employers: Even if none of that is a concern, I’ll have to be… Continue reading Pre-employment cognitive screening is common and legal

In a post from November 2022 I argued that allowing Elon Musk to succeed in buying Twitter was an unforced error, but now I believe it will go down as liberal elites’ biggest blunder to date, and even its possible undoing (at least as far as online is concerned). This is a mistake that will… Continue reading The Left’s Colossal Twitter Blunder

From Noah Smith: Generative AI and the finance industry. (Unfortunately, most of the article is paywalled, which has become an annoying and worsening trend with Substack and online journalism overall lately.) I am not concerned AI will make my job obsolete or supplant my income. More computing power does not mean better strategies. This is… Continue reading Why AI does not threaten my job/income

A few days ago I predicted a major decline and shorted BTC on Friday night, the 5th, and sure enough it crashed over $1,200 points, now at $28,200. I covered at $27,300. Big win. The trade could not have gone better. I broke my own rule by opening the short on Friday night instead of… Continue reading IQ edition, part 2: big trading win, and Mensa members regressing, Diminishing Returns to IQ

The obesity epidemic is a topic that interests a lot of people and generates considerable discussion online. I want to expound on what I believe to be the main reasons for the obesity epidemic, especially in America. I disagree with the ‘slime mold’ or chemical theories of obesity. This does not mean it’s wrong, just… Continue reading Why has the Incidence of Obesity Exploded in the US? Some possibilities

Crémieux (@cremieuxrecueil) posted a study of the highest (and lowest) IQ professions: Do these average IQ estimates seem overly compressed? For example, "physical scientists" (physicists, chemists, astronomers, and geologists) rank highest at 114, or about the 83rd percentile of the public. I would have guesses they are well up above the 90th percentile. — Steve… Continue reading Bitcoin chart very bearish: Using IQ to predict the market